NFL Week 7 Preview and Picks

Game: Titans +3 at Bills, O/U 46.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The 2-4 Titans that rank last in the league in rushing and near the bottom at stopping teams is coming off a Thursday night win vs. Pittsburgh, some momentum.  The Bills are 3-3 and sit tied for first in the AFC East and went to Arizona and won last week.  Buffalo ranks 5th in rushing with Jackson/Spiller combo, but is allowing more rushing yards per game than any team.  Needless to say neither defense is very good in this game.  The Titans rank 31st in time of possession.  Fitzpatrick should finally put in a good game this week targeting Stevie Johnson and get the Bills over 0.500. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 68% of Public Bets Bills, Steady Line, No Sharp Action

Bet Trends: Titans are 2-7-1 ATS last 10 overall and 0-4-1 ATS last 5 road games.  Bills are 4-9 ATS last 13 vs. the NFC and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 following an ATS win.  Titans are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. Buffalo and the underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Bills -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bills 31 / Titans 24

Game: Cardinals +6 at Vikings, O/U 40, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Cardinals are coming off a loss in Overtime and the 4-0 start is starting to fall apart now with QB Kolb injured and out and no real running game either, so teams can just focus on stopping Fitzgerald and this week they face a Vikings team that is very strong defensively.  The Vikings also lost last week but are 3-0 at home with an average margin of victory of 11 points.  Ponder is an impressive young QB and Harvin is a great playmaker, but some concern with AP's ankle into this game.  The Vikings special teams have been difference makers all year long too really helping field position.  Arizona's D may be able to keep it close but I do not see where they manufacture points.  Underdogs in the NFC have an incredible record of covering this year.

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Steamed to -7 with 60% of Public on Vikings and Smart $ Grabbed -5 and lower (Cardinal QB situation)

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs. NFC opponents, but 7-17 ATS last 24 games on turf.  Vikings are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 times these two teams met. 

The Pick:  Cardinals +7.5 @ 2 Units (Offered at 5Dimes)

Predicted Score: Vikings 20 / Cardinals 13

Game: Browns +3 at Colts, O/U 45, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Browns got their first win of the season against the Bengals last week forcing turnovers, but still just 1-5 and ranked near the bottom of the league on Defense.  The Colts followed up a dramatic win at home vs. the Packers with a terrible performance at the Jets.  Andrew Luck has the Colts 9th in the league in passing and the D is 3rd against the pass, but 29th against the run, although Richardson's health in question for the Browns.  The game ultimately comes down to the better QB play, and Luck at home as the major advantage despite the Browns impressive record of covering spreads.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Offered -1, -2, -3 at Different Books with 62% of Public on Colts Showing the Hands of some Sharp $ on Browns

Bet Trends: Browns are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road game and 7-2-1 ATS last 10 overall.  Colts are 2-8 ATS last 10 home games vs. teams with a losing road record and 3-13 ATS last 16 overall vs. teams with a losing record.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 meetings between these teams.

The Pick: Colts -2 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 27 / Browns 20

Game: Ravens +7.5 at Texans, O/U 48.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Ravens escaped with a victory last week to go 5-1 but not without a cost, losing Ray Lewis and Webb for the season to injury, and Nagata also hurt.  Baltimore has a balanced offense, but ranks in the bottom third in pass/run defense, and that before the injuries.  Houston was embarrassed in the national spotlight last week with its first loss of the season and the Ravens will look to exploit a very beatable defense.  Houston still ranks highly in most offensive and defensive categories, but really played an easy schedule to start the season and is over-rated.  The betting market looks to be over-reacting to the injuries as well.  Oher did a great job containing Ware last week and will try to  repeat that effort against Watt, but tougher task on the road.  The Texans lead the league in time of possession and the Ravens are 29th, so look for Houston to wear-down the Ravens injury-riddled D. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and Steamed to -6.5/7 with Raven Injuries and 61% of Public Bets Houston

Bet Trends: Ravens are 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. AFC opponents and 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Texans are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 vs. the AFC and 12-4-2 ATS last 17 overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS last 6 times these teams have met.

The Pick: Ravens +7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texans 27 / Ravens 23

Game: Packers -5 at Rams, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Packers bounced back last week to go to 3-3 with an impressive performance, scoring at will on a top D.  The Rams are coming off a loss but are 3-0 at home this season and excel at getting pressure on the QB, ranked 5th in pass D and may contain the Packers offense.  The Rams have issues on offense without WR Amendola, but expect a heavy dose of Jackson/Richardson to keep Rodgers off the field, and have a weapon in their kicker. 

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Fairly Steady with 85% of Public on Road Favored Packers (Squares?)

Bet Trends: Packers are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall and 1-6 ATS last 7 following an ATS win.  Rams are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 at home and 6-1 ATS last 7 overall.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS last 7 times these teams have met. 

The Pick: Rams +6 @ 2 Units (Bovada)

Predicted Score: Packers 27 / Rams 23

Game: Cowboys -2 at Panthers, O/U 45.5, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Cowboys lost a tough one last week and stand 2-3 without star RB Murray for this game.  The Dallas D has been great under Rob Ryan and ranks 2nd against the pass and 13th against the run.  Carolina is coming off a bye week after losing 3 straight and will try to turn things around this week.  Newton will look to bust out of his Sophomore slump, but Ware/Spencer will be hunting him down all day.  Dallas may also be without Dez Bryant on offense, but the Panthers are going to likely be without 2 key defensive players as well and lost starting center Kalil for the season as well.  This is the toughest game of the week to pick because we never know what Cowboy team will show up and the public is heavy on a road favorite against a team coming off a bye.

Line Movement: Opened -2 and Steady with 80% of Public Bets on Cowboys

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 8-20-1 ATS last 29 vs. the NFC and 3-9 ATS last 12 overall.  Panthers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games at home, but 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. teams with losing records. 

The Pick:  Panthers +2 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cowboys 28 / Panthers 27

Game: Redskins +6 at Giants, O/U 50, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Skins moved to 3-3 last week with a wild performance by RG3 who keeps them in every game and rank 2nd in rushing in the league but 32nd on defense against the pass.  The Giants went to San Francisco and dominated last week and return home with the league's 5th best passing offense, but ranked 21 against the pass.  Eli has all his targets back and should have no issue dicing the Skins D.  The Giants have quickness on D and did a great job containing Cam Newton earlier this year, a similar style QB to RG3.  The Giants are 0-2 vs. the NFC East this year and have struggled at home all season.  The Redskins rank 30th in penalties and cannot make dumb mistakes in this one, and the other risk is RG3's health, who needs to not take big hits if the Skins are to have a chance. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 but Offered -7.5 at 5Dimes with 56% of Public Betting Giants but Line Came Down to 5.5 Early in Week with Sharp $ on Skins.  Public is now 51% on Skins with a late week shift.

Bet Trends: Redskins are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. NFC East opponents, but 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a win.  Giants are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 following a win and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs. NFC teams.  Skins are 2-5-1 ATS last 8 games against the Giants in NY.

The Pick: Giants -6 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Giants 34 / Skins 27

Game: Saints -3 at Bucs, O/U 50, 1pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Saints are coming off a bye week and their first win of the season, but still stand 1-4 with the league's top ranked pass offense, but near last in rushing and both rushing/passing on D.  Tampa dominated last week but against the lowly Chiefs and although 3rd against the run they are 31st against the pass, exposed by Romo, Eli Manning, and RG3 this season.  Josh Freeman should have success in this game with Jackson and Williams on the outside making plays and turning into a strong tandem. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Offered -2, -1 at Some Books with 75% of Public on Saints (Squares) and Heavy Sharp $ Activity on the Bucs

Bet Trends: Saints are 8-1 ATS last 9 following a win and 9-3 ATS last 12 vs. the NFC.  Bucs are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 8-22 ATS last 30 at home.  The road team is 13-5 ATS last 18 meetings between these teams. 

The Pick: Bucs +3 @ 3 Units - System Play - Need to Force 3 Turnovers

Predicted Score: Bucs 31 / Saints 30

Game: Jets +11 at Pats, O/U 47, 4:25pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Jets are coming off a big 35-9 victory against the Colts and at 3-3 are right in the thick of the playoff race despite how bad the season has seemed due to media attention.  Offensively the running game finally got going last week while the passing game continues to struggle.  Jets rank 8th on defense against the pass and 28th against the run.  The Pats lost is Seattle last week and have looked shaky all season.  The new running game with Bolden/Ridley should be effective against the Jets weak run D.  The Jets are really going to miss Revis in this one, but the key will be the safeties locking up New England's tight-ends. 

Line Movement: Opened -11 and Steady with 54% of Public Bets on Pats, No Signs of Sharp $ and Offered in -10.5 to -12 Range at Books

Bet Trends: Jets are 3-8 ATS last 11 road games.  Pats are 28-10-1 ATS last 39 following a loss and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the AFC.  Home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings and Jets 6-13-1 ATS last 20 vs. the Pats.

The Pick: Pats -10.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Pats 31 / Jets 20

Game: Jags +4 at Raiders, O/U 43, 4:25pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Jags are 1-4 and coming off a bye week after being dismantled by Chicago.  They rank last in passing offense, 22nd in rushing, and 30th against the run.  The Raiders are also 1-4 and almost knocked off the Falcons last week on the road.  Oakland's weakness is defending the pass, but should fare well this week vs. Gabbert and get pressure on the QB.  Oakland also needs to get McFadden more touches and he could be set for a big game after looking impressive last week.  MJD always seems to find success against the Raiders and will carry a heavy load this week.  The Raiders schedule sets up for them to make a run and this game could very well be the turning point in the season, so I expect a strong effort.

Line Movement: Opened -5 with 72% of Public Bets on Raiders so Slight Sharp $ on Jags

Bet Trends: Jags are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 road games, but 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games after allowing 350+ yards the prior game.  Raiders are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. the AFC, but 10-4-1 ATS last 15 games following a loss.

The Pick: Raiders -4 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Raiders 30 / Jaguars 20

Game: Steelers -2.5 at Bengals, O/U 45.5, 8:20pm on 10-21

Analysis: The Steelers are 2-3 and had a long week to prepare, but are not the Steelers of old ranked 31st in running the ball and still facing plenty of injuries on both sides of the ball.  The Bengals are 3-3 and can look forward to a bye week next week, and will look to basically put an end to the Steelers season.  The Bengals lost to the Browns last week in a turnover filled game and have dropped two straight.  AJ Green should draw Ike Taylor most of the game, one of the better cover corners in the league, so Dalton will need to make good decisions.  Dalton has been sacked 17 times already and the Steelers will look to bring pressure in this one early and often.  The Steelers O-Line is banged up and should allow for pressure on Big Ben, although he is dangerous outside the pocket. 

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 and 66% of Public Bets on Road Steelers

Bet Trends: Steelers are 9-1 ATS last 10 after a loss, but 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. AFC teams and 0-7 ATS last 7 road games.  Bengals are 3-9-3 ATS last 15 overall and 1-5-1 ATS last 7 home games, also just 1-9-2 ATS last 12 vs. the AFC.  Bengals are 0-6-2 ATS last 8 vs. AFC North teams.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 meetings in Cincinnati. 

The Pick: Bengals +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score:

Game: Lions +6.5 at Bears, O/U 47.5, 8:30pm on 10-22

Analysis: The Lions are 2-3 and have managed to get behind early in games but come charging back and all 3 losses have been by 8 or less points with the 2nd ranked pass offense and 11th against the run on D.  The Bears have looked like the NFL's best team and sometimes the worst team, but come off a bye week healthy and at home winning their last 3 by 81 points.  The defense is scoring a lot of points off turnovers and they only allow 66 yards per game on the ground, and Jennings and Tillman are two solid cover corners. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and Offered -6, -6.5 and -7 at Books with 63% of Public Bets on Bears and Line Dropped Early in Week to -4.5 and Steamed Higher

Bet Trends: Lions are 1-8 ATS last 9 vs. NFC teams and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Bears are 5-1 ATS last 6 MNF games and 5-2 ATS last 5 games at home. 

The Pick: Bears -6.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bears 34 / Lions 24