Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 8 Thursday Night NFL Preview and Pick


Game: Chiefs +8.5 at Chargers, O/U 42.5, 8:20pm on 11-1

Analysis: The Chiefs may be the worst team in the NFL with no QB, a lousy coach, and a lack of playmakers.  They lost by 17 to San Diego at home in September and have not exactly made progress, but in a short week may benefit from sticking to the basics, running the ball, rushing the passer, and tackling, each of which I would argue they have the advantage against the Chargers, who are also terrible with a lousy coach.  San Diego was held to 6 points by the Browns last week and you can't just blame the weather, now losing 4 of 5 and looking to spiral to the point where Norv Turner is finally fired.  If the Chiefs keep things simple they can easily escape with a win, so I like them to at least cover.

Line Movement: Opened -8.5 and 65% of Public Bets San Diego with Small Sharp $ on KC

Bet Trends: Chiefs are 5-2 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 3-8 ATS last 11 vs. the AFC.  Chargers are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, but 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. AFC teams. 

The Pick: Chiefs +8.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Chargers 23 / Chiefs 17

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