Week 12 College Football Preview and Picks

Game: Oklahoma -5.5 @ TCU, O/U 60, 12pm on 12-1

Analysis: Oklahoma has survived with narrow wins against Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma St the last 3 weeks, finding ways to win but the D has been allowing a lot of points.  TCU lost to OK St. 36-14 a few weeks ago and has lost 3 of 5.  TCU leads the Big 12 with 20 interceptions and Landry Jones has struggled with turnovers at times.  TCU needs to use its ground game to control the clock and keep Jones off the field with all the Sooners offensive weapons.  Boykin has played well at QB for TCU and although the team has been inconsistent this is a week where a lot is on the line.

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 71% of Public on Oklahoma, but Line Down to -5.5 Shows Sharp $ on TCU

Bet Trends:  Sooners are 13-6 ATS after an ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  TCU is 3-13 ATS last 16 after an ATS win and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs. teams with winning road records. 

The Pick: TCU +6 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31 / TCU 27

Game: Oklahoma St. -5 at Baylor, O/U 87, 12pm on 12-1

Analysis: The Cowboys have been playing great football winning 5 of the last 7 with losses to Kansas St and Oklahoma, both on the road.  This is set to be a shoot-out with the Over-Under at 87.  Baylor pulled off the shocker vs. Kansas St and has won 3 of 4 with the offense scoring 44.4/game this season but the D allowing 38.5/game.  Florence has stepped it up at QB and Williams is one of the best WRs in the country.  The teams are fairly evenly matched and Baylor has momentum and home-field advantage, so have to take the underdog. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 71% of Public on Oklahoma St so Sharp $ Holding Line Steady

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road.  Bears are 11-2 ATS last 13 home games.  Cowboys are 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings, Favorite is 13-3 ATS, and Home Team is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Baylor +5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Baylor 52 / Oklahoma St 48

Game: Middle Tennessee St. +10 at Arkansas St., O/U 62.5, 3pm on 12-1

Analysis: The Sun Belt Championship features two 8-3 teams.  Middle Tennessee is not flashy and a fairly balanced team that upset G-Tech earlier this year.  Arkansas St. lost 26-13 to a Western Kentucky team that Middle Tennessee beat 34-29.  Arkansas St. is an up and coming team with a lot more talent and should be able to handle business in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 60% of Public on Arkansas St, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, but 2-6 ATS vs. winning record teams in the last 8.  Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall and 16-5 ATS last 21 after a game in which it surpassed 450 yards of offense.  Favorite is 8-1 ATS last 9 meetings and Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5. 

The Pick: Arkansas St -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Arkansas St 45 / Middle Tennessee 24

Game: Boise St -8.5 at Nevada, O/U 59, 3:30pm on 12-1

Analysis: The 9-2 Broncos comes in with the 5th ranked D allowing just 14.4 points/game, and really have not played any quality teams this year other than the 20-10 win vs. Fresno St.  Nevada is 7-4 and has dropped 3 of 4 including a 52-36 loss to Fresno St, and each of these teams lost to San Diego St. in close games.  Nevada average 263 yards/game rushing with dual threat QB Fajardo and Jefferson at RB, but the Wolfpack's D has been lousy allowing 33 points/game.  Nevada's Pistol Offense will be a big test for the Broncos D, but they have history with Nevada and shut them down last year.

Line Movement: Opened -8.5 and 66% of Public Bets on Boise St, but Small Sharp Interest in Nevada

Bet Trends: Broncos are 23-7 ATS last 30 road games, but 3-10 ATS last 13 conference games and 4-10 ATS after a win.  Wolf Pack are 3-14-1 ATS last 18 overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 in Nevada and Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Boise St -8.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Boise St 31 / Nevada 20

Game: Pitt -7 at South Florida, O/U 46, 7pm on 12-1

Analysis: Pitt is 5-6 and has shown flashes all season, a dominating win vs. Rutgers last week 27-6 and deserved to knock off Notre Dame 3 weeks ago if not for some terrible calls.  Pitt is a team that will be dangerous next season.  South Florida is 3-8 and has dropped 8 of 9 but beat a UCONN team that beat Pitt and has been in a lot of tight games. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 71% of Public Bets on Pitt and Also Some True Steam

Bet Trends: Panthers are 9-2-2 ATS last 13 vs. losing record teams and 20-8-1 ATS in the Big East.  Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 overall and 6-19-1 ATS in the Big East, also 3-12-1 ATS at home.  Panthers are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Pitt -6.5 @ 3 Units (Offered at CRIS)

Predicted Score: Pitt 30 / South Florida 17

Game: Texas +11.5 at Kansas St., O/U 63, 8pm on 12-1

Analysis: Texas has not been all that impressive this year and the best team they played was Oklahoma, who they lost at home 63-21, but did beat Baylor 56-50.  K-St is coming off of its first lost in which the D let them down, but was an over-rated team all season long that easily could have lost a few games (OK St, OK, and Iowa St).  Texas will try to attack on the ground after the Wildcats gave up 340 rushing yards to Baylor and Texas has plenty of options at RB.  Texas is 8-0 when rushing for 136+ yards.  After losing National Championship hopes, K-St could suffer another let down this week.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 73% Public Bets on K-St with Small Sharp $ on Texas

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall.  Wildcats are 17-5-1 ATS last 23 overall, but 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games in December.  Road Team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings and Underdog is 7-0 ATS. 

The Pick: Texas +11.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 31 / Texas 27

Game: Nebraska -3 at Wisconsin, O/U 49, 8:15pm on 12-1

Analysis: Nebraska is 10-2 and has won 6 straight and beat Wisconsin 30-27 earlier this year, but at home.  Taylor Martinez is the key to the team, and has had some off games with turnovers.  Badgers have lost 3 of 4 but each game close and all in Overtime.  Montee Ball has been great as of late and Stave much better at QB.  It figures to be another close game and in the Big 10 worth taking the underdog.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with 64% of Public on Nebraska but Small Sharp $ on Wisconsin

Bet Trends: Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS after allowing 20 points in the prior game, but 3-1-1 ATS last 5 Big 10 games.  Badgers are 2-5 ATS after an ATS loss. 

The Pick: Wisconsin +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Nebraska 28 / Wisconsin 27

Thursday/Friday NCAA Football Preview/Picks

Game: Louisville +3 at Rutgers, O/U 43.5, 7:30pm on 11-29

Analysis: Louisville comes in on a 2 game slide after starting 9-0 and star QB Bridgewater is playing with a broken wrist on his non-throwing hand which impacts the types of plays that can be run.  Rutgers suffered their worst defeat of the season last week 27-6 to Pitt and continues to struggle on offense, but the defense is ranked among the Top 10 in the country.  Rutgers has a fairly good rushing attack with Jamison and the Cardinals have allowed 6 RB's to surpass the century mark this season.  Rutgers is in search of its first BCS bowl and Big East Championship. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 62% of Public Bets on Rutgers

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall.  Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick: Rutgers -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Rutgers 20 / Louisville 14

Game: Northern Illinois -6.5 vs. Kent St, O/U 58, 7pm on 11-30

Analysis: Two MAC teams come in ranked and set to battle it out for the championship, both at 11-1 and should be a fun game to watch.  After starting the season with a 1 point loss to Iowa the Huskies have ripped off 11 straight wins scoring 40 points/game and allowing just 17.5/game.  NIU is a ground attack team averaging 245 yards/game and the QB has 2,750 yards passing and 1,600 rushing.  Kent St. also averages 240 yards a game on the ground and has two rushers over 1000 yards this season.  Kent St. put up 35 on a stingy Rutgers D, so has no problems scoring.  Kent St. also has a +20 turnover ratio and is led by Dri Archer in rushing and receiving, but has been bothered by an ankle injury, and does it all including 3 kick return TDs.  The winner of this game could get a BCS bid.

Line Movement: Opened -5 and Pushed Higher with 55% Public on Northern Illinois Along with Some Sharp $

Bet Trends: Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 overall and 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in the MAC, but 3-8 ATS last 11 at Neutral Sites.  Golden Flashes are 14-2 ATS last 16 games on turf and 14-3 ATS last 17 overall.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and the Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick: Northern Illinois -6.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Northern Illinois 38 / Kent St. 31

Game: UCLA +7.5 at Stanford, O/U 43.5, 8pm on 11/30

Analysis: A rematch of last week with Stanford winning easily 35-17 in UCLA, so unusual to see the Smart $ take the Bruins in this one and push this line lower.  UCLA's offense is usually great, but Stanford has proven to have an elite front-7 as Oregon found out.  Hogan has looked good at QB for Stanford and Taylor is a tough RB, and overall Stanford a much more physical team.  UCLA however has much more to play for this week, so we should see a better effort and likely why the double-digit spread was bet down, and even some feeling UCLA lost on purpose to avoid Oregon in this game. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 60% Public Bets Stanford but Line Down to 7.5 do Sharp $ on UCLA

Bet Trends: Bruins are 6-1 ATS last 7 after an ATS loss, but 5-12 ATS last 17 road games.  Cardinals are 17-5-1 ATS last 23 Pac 12 games and 23-10 ATS last 33 at home.  Favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Home Team is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings with Bruins 1-6 ATS last 7 visits to Stanford.

The Pick: UCLA +7.5 @ 1 Unit (The +10.5 was a Much Better Get)

Predicted Score: Stanford 24 / UCLA 21

Week 12 Thursday Night NFL Preview and Pick

Game: Saints +3/3.5 at Falcons, O/U 56, 8:20pm on 11/29

Analysis: Saints have won 5 of 7 including a 31-27 home win vs. the Falcons on 11-11, but last week lost to the 49ers, a very hot team playing great defense.  The offense has shown more balance and Ivory is running well, and Sproles being back is a big boost, but need to check the status of Colston for this game who was knocked out last week.  The defense has been playing better of late with the D-Line getting a strong pass rush.  Falcons come in 10-1 and looking to avenge the only loss, but have struggled to beat bad teams the last few weeks and not looking all that impressive, but still finding ways to win.  Matt Ryan is already becoming one of the best comeback QB's in the league, but the D has struggled to stop the run.  Jimmy Graham dominated the Falcons in the prior matchup and should be the D's focus in this one, and the return of Witherspoon is very key to the Falcons D.  The Saints have owned the Falcons, so expect a 100% effort out of Atlanta to prove they are the class of the NFC, and being at home for the short week should help, and a win could keep the Saints out of the playoffs.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 60% of Public Bets on Saints, Line Steady

Bet Trends: Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 divisional games, but 1-3-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games.  Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 23-9-2 ATS last 34 following an ATS loss.  Saints are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and the underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Falcons -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Falcons 34 / Saints 27

NFL Week 12 Picks

Game: Raiders +8 at Bengals, O/U 49, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Raiders have lost 3 straight and allowed 135 points in those games, awful defense.  The offense is missing McFadden but turnovers and inability to score in the Red Zone have hurt the output.  Bengals have looked impressive the last 2 weeks and Dalton to Green should be set for a big day, and an opportunistic D should pressure the QB and force some turnovers allowing them to pull away.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 62% of Public Bets Bengals Pushing Line Higher

Bet Trends: Raiders are 17-8-1 ATS last 26 after an ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Bengals are 11-4 ATS last 15 following a win, 2-11-2 STS vs. the AFC, and 1-4-1 ATS last 6 at home.  Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Bengals -8 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 34 / Raiders 23

Game: Steelers -1 at Browns, O/U 34, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Steelers are down to a 3rd QB in Batch but the D held the Ravens without an offensive TD and will rely heavily on that group again this week.  The Browns are playing some great football and coming up short, but the offense is balanced and the D has played well until letting leads slip away late.  It sets up to be an ugly low scoring game.

Line Movement: No Movement, Line Off at Most Books

Bet Trends: Steelers are 10-1 ATS last 11 after a loss, but 2-7 ATS last 9 road games.  Browns are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 overall and 5-1-1 ATS vs. AFC North. 

The Pick: Browns +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Browns 16 / Steelers 13

Game: Bills +3 at Colts, O/U 51, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Bills are coming off a big win vs. Miami and finally played well defensively, but rank 31st vs. the run.  Offensively the team is inconsistent, hurt by turnovers, and needs to get Spiller the ball 20+ times.  Colts snapped a 4 game win streak last week, over-matched, but will look to bounce back this week, and Luck needs to show poise rebounding from last week.   

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 75% of Public Bets on Colts

Bet Trends: Bills are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 after a win.  Colts are 6-0 ATS following a loss and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home., but 3-13 ATS vs. losing record teams.  Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Colts -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 27 / Bills 20

Game: Broncos -10 at Chiefs, O/U 44, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Chiefs offensive woes continued last week scoring 6 points vs. the Bengals and have no passing attack.  Defensively the team does stop the pass fairly well, but Dalton lit them up last week.  The 7-3 Broncos have won 5 straight and the Defense is playing very well, star players at each level and should harass the QB all game, while Manning should pick apart the D even without McGahee. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 81% of Public Bets Broncos with Some Sharp $ on Chiefs with Home Double-Digit Underdogs a History of Covering in the NFL

Bet Trends: Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS vs. AFC West.  Chiefs are 4-10 ATS vs. AFC teams and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home.  Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 in KC and Road Team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings, but Underdog is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Broncos -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Chiefs 13 / Broncos 31

Game: Titans -3 at Jaguars, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Titans are coming off a bye week following a 37-3 thrashing of the Dolphins and Locker back at QB.  The D continues to rank near the bottom of the league in yards allowed.  The Jags rank near last in every statistical category but last week fought the Texans hard and found a spark with Henne at QB, and Blackmon came alive.  The D still was nowhere to be found and remains an issue.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 64% of Public Bets Titans, Steady Line

Bet Trends:  Titans are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 overall and 0-4-1 ATS vs. AFC South teams.  Jaguars are 0-5 ATS last 5 at home. 

The Pick: Titans -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Titans 27 / Jaguars 17

Game: Vikings at Bears, O/U , 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: The 6-4 Vikings got back on track before the bye week with a win vs. the Lions and Peterson is playing as well as ever, but the key will be if Harvin returns for the offense.  The Bears were embarrassed on MNF and QB situation is up in the air, offense really struggling and should see a lot of sacks again with a terrible O-Line.  The D was exposed last week as well and seems to be giving up due to the offenses struggles.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5

Bet Trends: Vikings are 4-11-3 ATS last 18 vs. winning record teams and 4-12 ATS last 16 following a win.  Beats are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home.  Favorite is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and Vikings are 0-4 ATS last 4 in Chicago.

The Pick: Vikings +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Vikings 13 / Bears 17

Game: Falcons -1 at Bucs, O/U 50, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Falcons are starting to struggle due to a lack of a ground attack and Ryan making poor decisions the last two weeks, but easy to be corrected, still a teams tacked with talent.  Bucs have now won 4 straight and Freeman playing fantastic as are the RBs and WRs, while the D ranks last against the pass and first against the run, a troubling matchup for this game against the pass-happy Falcons.  The Bucs however do have 15 interceptions this season, 3rd in the league.

Line Movement: Opened Even and 79% of Public Bets on Falcons with Smart $ on Bucs

Bet Trends: Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and 23-9-1 after an ATS loss, but 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams.  Bucs are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall, but 9-23 ATS last 32 at home.  Falcons are 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings, but road team 5-2 ATS last 7.

The Pick: Bucs +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 27 / Falcons 23

Game: Seahawks -3 at Dolphins, O/U 37.5, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Seattle is coming off a bye after two wins and the offense has looked sharp, but historically a much better home team.  Miami's early season success was short-lived and now dropped 3 straight.  Seattle has an explosive pass rush and Tannehill is starting to look like a rookie, so turnovers may be a problem.  Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are turning into trusting targets for Wilson that has boosted the offense. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 77% of Public Bets on Seattle

Bet Trends: Seahawks are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 9-21-1 ATS last 31 road games and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games on grass.  Dolphins are 8-3 ATS last 11 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Seahawks are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings, but Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Seattle -3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Seattle 23 / Miami 13

Game: Baltimore -1 at San Diego, O/U 46.5, 4:05pm on 11-25

Analysis: Baltimore is 8-2 but still has a lot of questions and Flacco has struggled on the road.  San Diego looks terrible but has been able to stop the run, and it seems Rivers can get hot at any time and bust his slump, and this may just be the week. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 78% of Public Bets Ravens, but Line Down Says Sharp $ on San Diego

Bet Trends: Ravens are 5-11 ATS last 16 road games vs. teams with losing home records.  Chargers are 9-2 ATS last 11 vs. AFC teams and 9-4 ATS last 13 on grass.  Home Team is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings and Ravens 2-5 ATS last 7 in San Diego.

The Pick: San Diego +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: San Diego 27 / Baltimore 24

Game: 49ers -1.5 at Saints, O/U 48.5, 4:25pm on 11-25

Analysis: The 49ers rolled over the Bears and Kaepernick looked very good at QB and could make this offense more dangerous while the D is already elite.  Saints have won 6 of 7 after an 0-4 start and have taken advantage of a weak schedule, so this will prove to be a much tougher matchup.  The 49ers D is playing too well even with the game on the road, and should contain the Saints.

Line Movement: 

Bet Trends: 49ers are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 overall, but 10-25-4 ATS following 14+ point wins.  Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 15-3 ATS last 18 at home.  Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick: 49ers -1.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: 49ers 30 / Saints 24

Game: Rams +1 at Cardinals, O/U 37.5, 4:25pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Rams are coming off one of their poorest performances with a loss to the Jets.  The Rams have plenty of offensive firepower when healthy and the D is great at pass-rushing and pass coverage.  The Cardinals offense is terrible, but the D gave them an opportunity to win last week.  I do not expect Jeff Fisher's Rams to make a lot of mistakes, and the Rams are the better team.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 56% of Public Bets Cardinals with Smart $ on Rams

Bet Trends: Rams are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. NFC teams, but 4-10 ATS last 14 road games.  Cardinals are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall.  Favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings and Rams are 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings. 

The Pick: Rams +3 @ 2 Units (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Rams 16 / Cardinals 9

Game: Packers +2.5 at NY Giants, O/U 50.5, 8:20pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Packers have won 5 straight but are still having issues finding a running game and protecting the QB.  Giants are well rested and sit 6-4 and tend to win the must-have games like this one, and can also pressure the QB well and exploit GB's beat-up D through the air and on the ground. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 71% of Public on Packers, but Line Up, so Sharp $ on Giants

Bet Trends: Packers are 10-2 ATS last 12 vs. winning record teams.  Giants are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 after a bye and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  Road Team is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and Underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Giants -2.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Giants 27 / Packers 24

Game: Panthers -2.5 at Eagles, O/U 41, 8:30pm on 11-26

Analysis: Carolina has been on the wrong side of a lot of close games all season and the D is actually playing well, but the offense has been inconsistent.  Philly is facing injury concerns without Vick and McCoy and the O-Line is terrible, and the D is also having its share of issues. 

Line Movement: Line Off at Most Books

Bet Trends: Panthers are 6-2 ATS last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. losing record teams.  Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 on MNF, but 7-18-1 ATS last 26 home games and 3-13-1 ATS last 17 after an ATS loss.  Panthers are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Panthers -2.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Panthers 24 / Eagles 20

College Football Week 12 Quick Picks

No time for a full analysis this week, just picking the games.

Ohio St -4.5 v.s Michigan @ 2 Units

Baylor -3.5 vs. Texas Tech @ 2 Units

Oregon -9.5 at Oregon St @ 1 Unit

Penn St -2 vs Wisconsin @ 1 Unit

Oklahoma -6 vs Oklahoma St @ 2 Units

Florida St -7 vs. Florida @ 1 Unit

UCLA +3 at Stanford @ 2 Units

Ole Miss -1.5 vs. Miss. St @ 2 Units

South Carolina +4 @ Clemson @ 1 Unit

Notre Dame -5 at USC @ 2 Units

Thanksgiving Football Betting Picks/Previews

Game: Texans -3 at Lions, O/U 50, 12:30pm on 11-22

Analysis: The 9-1 Texans travel to Detroit on a short week and looked very beatable last week against a terrible Jaguars team, the Pass D exposed once again, similar to the Green Bay loss.  Houston's lack of depth looks like it may become a problem as the season progresses.  Detroit has the advantage of being home in a short week but has dropped 22 straight, but sports the league's top ranked passing offense.  The Lions have found secondary weapons with Broyles coming on, and Leshoure a surprise at RB adding balance.  The Lions have struggled with turnovers and stopping the run, a problem that the Texans will exploit. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 79% of Public Bets on Texans and Line Steady

Bet Trends: Texans are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games and 12-4-1 ATS following a win, also 15-5-2 ATS last 22 overall.  Lions are 5-11-1 ATS last 17 overall, 2-5 ATS last 7 at home, and 0-8 ATS last 8 Thursday games. 

The Pick: Houston -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Houston 27 / Detroit 23

Game: Redskins +3.5 at Cowboys, O/U 47.5, 4:15pm on 11-22

Analysis: RG3 gets the spotlight for a big divisional game that can put the Skins right back in the playoff hunt.  Washington has struggled stopping the pass, but has led an effective ground attack on offense and dismantled the Eagles 31-6 last week.  The Cowboys have won 2 straight in unimpressive fashion and rely heavily on the pass, a positive for this matchup, while the D has played well despite losing some key players.  Dez Bryant finally woke up last week and Austin/Witten provide Romo plenty of offensive weapons. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and 55% of Public Bets on Redskins but Line Down to -3 so Sharp $ on Dallas

Bet Trends: Redskins are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. NFC East teams, but 1-3-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games.  Cowboys are 6-1 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 5-12 ATS last 17 overall, and 2-12 ATS last 14 after a win, 0-7 ATS last 7 home games.  Redskins are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and 5-0 ATS last 5 in Dallas, and the underdog is 22-6 ATS last 28 meetings.

The Pick: Skins +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Redskins 27 / Dallas 24

Game: Patriots -7 at Jets, O/U 48.5, 8:20pm on 11-22

Analysis: The Patriots are coming off an impressive win and the offense is clicking, but lost Gronkowski to injury, though Hernandez expected to return, and the D remains susceptible to the pass.  The Jets snapped a 3 game slide last week, but have been inconsistent, mostly due to QB play.  NY does not have a lot of playmakers to threaten the Pats D, and Brady should be able to let the Pats pull away in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -7 with 83% of Public on New England and Line Steady with Some Sharp $ on NYJ

Bet Trends: Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 53-25-3 ATS last 81 road games.  Jets are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. AFC teams.  Pats are 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings in NY and road team is 20-8-1 ATS last 29 meetings. 

The Pick: Pats -7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Pats 38 / Jets 20

NFL Week 11 Picks

Game: Eagles +3 at Redskins, O/U 44, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Eagles have lost 5 straight and have a coach on the hot-seat and will be starting rookie QB Foles in this one on the road against the Skins who are coming off a bye, so RG3 should return to form.  The Skins are also 3-6 and ranked 30th in passing allowed, but are stout against the run and rank 2nd in rushing offense.  The Redskins get a boost on offense with Garcon finally slated to return. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 70% Public on Skins (Sharps Holding It w/ Philly)

Bet Trends: Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 vs. NFC East but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall and 5-15-1 ATS in games following a loss.  Skins are 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. NFC East but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Philly 4-1-1 ATS last 6 in Washington.

The Pick:  Redskins -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Redskins 30 / Eagles 20

Game: Packers -3 at Lions, O/U 52, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Packers are coming off a bye following 4 straight wins.  The offense remains 1-dimensional with the passing game and the Defense has been suspect at times with some key injuries.  The Lions are 4-5 and really need this game, and have been in most games this year with the top ranked passing offense and ranked 7th against the pass.  Detroit has allowed 4 special teams TDs this season and the Packers have one of the best in Cobb that could play a big role. Detroit has become more balanced on offense with Leshoure at RB and should help keep Rodgers off the field.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 81% of Public on Green Bay with Sharp $ on Detroit

Bet Trends: Packers are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC North teams.  Lions are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. NFC North teams.  Packers are 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Detroit.

The Pick: Lions +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Lions 31 / Packers 30

Game: Cardinals +9.5 at Falcons, O/U 44, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Cards have dropped 5 straight since starting 4-0 and are coming off a bye week.  They rank 2nd against the pass which is key in a game against the Falcons.  Arizona struggles on offense without a running game and with Kolb still out.  Atlanta is coming off its first loss of the season and has been involved in tight games all season.  The D is ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and Down to 9.5/10 Despite 66% Public on Atlanta, so Signs of Sharp $ on Arizona

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS last 6 overall and 7-17-1 ATS last 25 on turf.  Falcons are 21-6 ATS last 27 after a loss and 12-4-1 ATS last 17 vs. losing teams.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Arizona +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Atlanta 20 / Arizona 13

Game: Bucs -1 at Panthers, O/U 48, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The 5-4 Bucs have won 4 of 5 and Freeman is playing like an elite QB with weapons on the outside and rookie RB Martin impressive.  Tampa has lost a lot of key players up front, but has not lost a beat.  The D is 1st against the run and last against the pass.  The 2-7 Panthers have struggled all season but mostly in tight games, and lost to start the season 16-10 to the Bucs.  Newton has not looked comfortable and has made too many mistakes, also the Panthers kick-coverage exposed last week.  Tampa will make the Panthers 1-dimensional and then capitalize on key turnovers.

Line Movement: Opened -1 and Steady with 81% of Public on Tampa, No Line Movement Signals Some Sharp $ Countering with Carolina

Bet Trends: Bucs are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. NFC South.  Panthers are 0-4 ATS last 4 at home.  Favorite is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Bucs -1 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 27 / Panthers 21

Game: Browns +8.5 at Cowboys, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Browns are coming off a bye and were playing some of their best football in recent weeks, a ground game bolstered by rookie Richardson and Weeden has looked great when his WR's are making the catches.  The D has struggled in both the run and pass games.  Dallas is coming off a big win in Philly but did not look too impressive, and has played a lot of close games.  The offense is missing Murray at RB (may return this week), and the D stops the pass better than the run, but ranked in the Top 13 in both.  The success of the Cowboys lies with how many times Romo makes costly mistakes. 

Line Movement: Opened at 8 and 51% Public on Cowboys, Line at 7.5/9.5 Depending on the Book, so Shop Around

Bet Trends: Browns are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 after a loss and 5-2-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Cowboys are 5-11 ATS last 16 overall and 1-7 ATS last 8 after a win. .

The Pick: Browns +9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cowboys 24 / Browns 20

Game: Jets +3 at Rams, O/U 38.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Jets have been dominated in 2 straight games and just a team that lacks any playmakers on offense and the D has been mediocre, stopping the pass but not the run.  The Rams love playing at home and coming off a Tie vs. the 49ers, and have a great D-Line and Secondary that should create a few turnovers, while on offense the return of Amendola has really boosted the team, especially on 3rd downs.  Look for a balanced attack and should have the Jets off balance all game.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 71% of Public on Rams with Line Up to 3.5 at Some Books

Bet Trends: Jets are 4-9 ATS last 13 road games.  Rams are 7-3 ATS last 10 overall, but 2-7 ATS vs. teams with losing records.  Jets are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Rams -3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Rams 26 / Jets 13

Game: Jaguars +15.5 at Texans, O/U 40.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Jags have the league's 30th ranked rushing offense and 31st passing, really missing MJD.  The Defense is not much better, 23rd vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run.  The Colts and Lions have handed them 17 point losses the last two weeks.  The Texans are coming off an impressive road win in Chicago is a sloppy weather game and return home with a top D and balanced offense.  The Texans should run-away in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -16 with 57% of Public on Texans and Line Down to 14.5/15.5

Bet Trends: Jaguars are 5-0 ATS last 5 road games but 7-19-1 ATS vs. winning record teams.  Texans are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 at home and 19-7-2 ATS overall.  Jags are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games in Houston.

The Pick: Texans -15 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Houston 38 / Jacksonville 13

Game: Bengals -3.5 at Chiefs, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Bengals are coming off their most impressive win of the year against the Giants and dominated with a great passing game and a D that forced turnovers.  The Chiefs played Monday Night and lost to the Steelers in OT, a game that was ugly, and a team that can run the ball and stop the pass, but struggles to make plays in the passing game and turns the ball over too often. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 79% of Public on Bengals but Line Holding Steady

Bet Trends: Bengals are 10-4 ATS following a win, but 1-11-2 ATS last 14 vs. AFC teams.  Chiefs are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 4-9 ATS vs. the AFC. 

The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 17 / Chiefs 16

Game: Saints -4.5 at Raiders, O/U 54, 4:05pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Saints are one of the NFL's hottest teams with a 4-1 record the last 5 and beating the Falcons last week.  The offense is 2nd in passing and has a ton of weapons, while the D ranks near the bottom of the league.  The Raiders were blown out last week and have allowed nearly 100 points the last two games, and without top defensive player in the secondary this week, Branch.  On offense Carson Palmer is doing everything he can leading the 5th ranked passing game, but this week not only is McFadden out at RB again, but top WR target DHB also out as injuries continue to haunt the Raiders. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 with 85% of Public on Saints but Line Down to 4.5 with Sharp $ on Oakland

Bet Trends: Saints are 10-2 ATS last 12 after a win and 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Raiders are 10-3 ATS last 13 Week 11 games and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 after an ATS loss, but 1-4-1 ATS last 6 at home. 

The Pick: Saints -4.5 @ 2 Units (Bet Against the Sharps and with the Squares)

Predicted Score: Saints 41 / Raiders 30

Game: Colts +10 at Patriots, O/U 53.5, 4:25pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Manning-Brady battle has turned to Luck-Brady and the rookie QB has been excellent winning 4 straight and a team playing with a ton of emotion for their coach.  The Colts are efficient on offense, balanced, and the D has done enough to keep them in games, but does need improvement and its biggest test since Green Bay this week.  The Pats escaped with a win last week and have been inconsistent all season, but Brady still leads an efficient passing attack, but the D ranks 29th against the pass. 

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 56% of Public on Colts has Line 9/10 at Books

Bet Trends: Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall and 8-2 ATS last 10 on turf.  Pats are 2-5 ATS last 7 after a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home.

The Pick: Colts +10 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 24 / Pats 30

Game: Chargers +8 at Broncos, O/U 48.5, 4:25pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Chargers have lost 4 of 5 with the lone win being vs. the Chiefs, and Rivers has been making terrible decisions.  The D ranks 2nd against the run, 18th against the pass.  The Broncos have won 4 straight and the D is Top 10 and 3rd ranked passing game with Manning sharp as ever inside of 20 yards.  The O-Line has done a great job protecting him and he has enough playmakers to move the ball, though Thomas was hurt last week and important to check his status.  Denver also has big playmakers on D and against a team that struggles to protect the QB.

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 69% of Public on Broncos and True Steam to 7.5/8.5 Now

Bet Trends: Chargers are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. AFC teams and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. AFC West, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Broncos are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC West but just 16-33-2 ATS at home and 6-16-1 ATS last 23 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Chargers are 4-0-4 ATS last 8 games in Denver and 8-3-2 ATS overall vs. Denver last 13. 

The Pick: Broncos -7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Broncos 31 / Chargers 17

Game: Ravens -2.5 at Steelers, O/U 41.5, 8:0pm on 11/18

Analysis: Baltimore is 7-2 and a full array of weapons on offense with Flacco playing great and still yet to really get Ray Rice going.  The D ranks 26th against the run and pass but faces a Steelers team without Big Ben, a huge loss.  The Steelers have won 4 straight and the D has led the way despite injuries.  It will be tough for the Steelers to have much success offensively this week, and the D will eventually fold from being on the field too long. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 72% of Public Bets on the Ravens, Line Up to 3.5 at Most Books with True $ Steam

Bet Trends: Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS vs. AFC North and 17-7-2 ATS last 26 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Steelers are 9-4 ATS last 13 vs. AFC North but just 2-8 ATS last 10 after a win.  Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS last 11 meetings. 

The Pick: Ravens -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 20 / Steelers 13

Game: Bears +6 at 49ers, O/U , 8:30am on 11/19

Analysis: The Bears are 7-2 but are likely without Cutler this week, not necessarily a bad thing for a team that relies of the great defense and can focus on field position and running the ball this week.  The 49ers had allowed 6 or less points in 5 straight before last week's game.  Coach Harbaugh had a heart procedure this week that could mess up this week's game-plan a bit.  They may struggle to run the ball and likely still without their starting QB as well, so this could be an ugly Monday nighter.

Line Movement: Line is Off at Most Books on Cutler Status, but Caesars at 6

Bet Trends: Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 5-2 ATS last 7 MNF games.  49ers are 21-6 ATS last 27 MNF games and 12-4-1 ATS last 17 at home.  Home Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Bears +6 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bears 16 / 49ers 13