College Football Week 10 Preview and Picks

Game: Arkansas +13 at South Carolina, O/U 52.5, 12pm on 11-10

Analysis: The Razorbacks have won 3 of its last 4 but against lesser opponents and blown out by Texas A&M and Alabama earlier this season.  The team struggles to protect the QB and faces a ferocious pass rush this weekend.  South Carolina has dropped 2 of 3 and Tennessee gave them a scare last weekend after a hot start to this season, missing star RB Lattimore for the rest of the season.  South Carolina should be well rested off its bye week.

Line Movement: Opened -14 with 71% of Public on South Carolina, but Line Down to 12.5/13 (Some Signs of Sharp $)

Bet Trends: Razorbacks are 2-6 ATS last 8 overall and 1-7 ATS last 8 road games.  Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home and 6-2 ATS last 8 overall.  Arkansas is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings, but the favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings and home team 4-1 ATS.

The Pick: South Carolina -13 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: South Carolina 38 / Arkansas 23

Game: Iowa St +10.5 at Texas, O/U 57, 12pm on 11-10

Analysis: Iowa St has lost 3 of 4 but have stayed in games against some top quality teams and lost its star Linebacker for the year.  Texas has won 3 straight in a bunch of close Big 12 games and the Defense has struggled all season.  Iowa St has a strong Defense that forces turnovers and the offense should be able to put up points on the Longhorns to keep it close.

Line Movement: Opened -10 and Steady with 63% of Public Bets on Texas

Bet Trends: Cyclones are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games and 5-2 ATS last 7 after a loss.  Longhorns are 8-18-1 ATS last 27 home games and 1-4 ATS last 5 Big 12 games.  The road team is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Iowa St +10.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texas 30 / Iowa St 27

Game: Louisville -1.5 at Syracuse, O/U 57.5, 12pm on 11-10

Analysis: The 9th ranked Cardinals will look to go 10-0 on the road and have been in a bunch of close games this year, but always find a way to win.  Bridgewater has been impressive at QB.  Syracuse is 4-5 but has given quality teams USC, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Cincinnati all close games in losses.  Syracuse has a potent passing offense that will test Louisville's secondary.  Syracuse came up short in an upset attempt last week due to turnovers and will look to pull the upset this week and shake-up the Big East. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 82% of Public on Syracuse, but Line Down to 1.5/2 with Sharp $ Strong Favor of Syracuse

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 14-4 ATS last 18 road games and 9-3 ATS last 12 Big East games, but 1-7 ATS last 8 after allowing 200 rushing yards in the prior game.  Orange are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 overall and 2-7-1 ATS last 10 in the Big East.

The Pick: Syracuse +2 @ 2 Units (Money-Line Attractive)

Predicted Score: Syracuse 31 / Louisville 30

Game: Missouri +3 at Tennessee, O/U 59.5, 12:20pm on 11-10

Analysis: Missouri has lost 3 of 4 and has had trouble scoring points all season with QB Franklin struggling with injuries and not very productive when playing, but a cure for that is the terrible Vols Defense.  Tennessee struggled to beat Troy last weekend, but the week prior should have upset South Carolina, so you never really know what to expect.  Tennessee is among the best in the country with its passing game, Bray and a bunch of athletic receivers, but Missouri does rank 15th against the pass. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 60% of Public on Tennessee

Bet Trends: Tigers are 6-1 ATS following a loss and 9-3 ATS last 12 games on grass.  Vols are 3-9-1 ATS last 13 SEC games and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home. 

The Pick: Tennessee -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Tennessee 34 / Missouri 27

Game: Oregon St. +4.5 at Stanford, O/U 44.5, 3pm on 11-10

Analysis: The 7-1 Beavers responded to its first loss with a win vs. ASU last week as Vaz returned to the QB spot.  Stanford is 7-2 and both teams have in a common as loss at the Washington Huskies.  Stanford's D should give Oregon St. a lot of problems, but Oregon St has a great D has well, so expect a low scoring game, and Stanford's ability to have a balanced offense gives them an advantage. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 51% of Public on Oregon St Pushing Line Down

Bet Trends: Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 vs. teams with winning records and 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games.  Cardinals are 14-5-1 ATS last 20 Pac 12 games and 22-10 ATS last 32 at home.  The home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Stanford -4 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Stanford 24 / Oregon St. 17

Game: Arizona St. +9 at USC, O/U 65.5, 3pm on 11-10

Analysis: ASU has lost 3 straight to some of the better Pac 12 teams and have been allowing a lot of points.  USC is coming off a loss to Oregon in which it allowed 62 points but the offense was sharp.  ASU can put up some offensive numbers but unlikely to be able to hang with USC's firepower, but the bet trends and line movement suggest a cover.

Line Movement: Opened -11 and 80% of Public on USC but Line Down to -9 So Sharp $ on ASU

Bet Trends: Sun Devils are 3-7 ATSS last 10 Pac 12 games and 9-24-2 ATS last 35 road games against teams with winning home records.  Trojans are 16-7 ATS last 23 following a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall and 0-4 ATS last 4 vs. winning record teams.  ASU is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Underdog 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Arizona St +9.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: USC 52 / Arizona St 48

Game: Penn St. +9 at Nebraska, O/U 52, 3:30pm on 11-10

Analysis: Penn St has won 6 of 7 and overall having a good season with McGloin at QB and the 14th ranked scoring D in the country.  Nebraska is 7-2 and a tough team to beat at home.  Taylor Martinez and Abdullah lead a ground attack averaging 270 yards per game.  Penn St's ability to play well on the road and balanced offense should keep this one close.

Line Movement: Opened -8 and Public is 50/50 Split, Line to -9 Favors Some Sharp $ on Nebraska

Bet Trends: Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games and 7-1 ATS last 8 overall.  Cornhuskers are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home and 20-4-1 ATS last 25 when at home vs. teams with winning road records.

The Pick: Penn St +9 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Penn St 27 / Nebraska 31

Game: West Virginia +10 at Oklahoma St., O/U 78.5, 3:30pm on 11-10

Analysis: West Virginia  has struggled losing 3 straight and the Defense cannot stop anyone, and Geno Smith is not the QB many thought he was when playing 100th+ ranked defenses.  Oklahoma St. gave Kansas St. a much better game than WVU did and had won 3 straight prior to last week.  OK St. should put up at least 50 points in this game, but WVU can likely put up a lot of points as well, so a 10 point spread looks a bit wide.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 59% of Public on Oklahoma St and Steam Pushing Line to 9.5/10

Bet Trends: Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS last 11 road games but 1-6 ATS last 7 overall.  Cowboys are 11-4 ATS last 15 games on turf and 7-3 ATS last 10 at home.

The Pick:  West Virginia +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: West Virginia 45 / Oklahoma St 52

Game: Texas A&M +14 at Alabama, O/U 57, 3:30pm on 11-10

Analysis: The Aggies are 7-2 and those two losses were to Florida and LSU by 3 and 5 points respectively.  Manziel is a fun player to watch at QB as a dual threat and makes plays happen, but a tough road test this week.  Alabama squeaked out a win last week at LSU but the D showed susceptibility and A&M will look to capitalize this week on film studies. 

Line Movement: Opened -14 and Steady with 58% of Public on Alabama

Bet Trends: Aggies are 4-10 ATS last 14 after a win and 1-7 ATS last 8 versus teams with winning records.  Crimson Tide is 6-2 ATS last 8 SEC games but just 2-5 ATS last 7 home games. 

The Pick: Texas A&M +14 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Alabama 35 / Texas A&M 24

Game: Baylor +21.5 at Oklahoma, O/U 77.5, 3:30pm on 11-10

Analysis: Baylor has lost 4 of 5 with 3 of those on the road and allowing a ton of points.  Baylor lacks any quality wins this season, but played tight games with Texas and WVU, not the best teams in the Big 12.  Oklahoma has not looked all too sharp the last two weeks but should have no problem scoring this week and also will be Baylor's toughest test on offense.  Oklahoma's top two RBs both were injured last weekend and status' uncertain. 

Line Movement: Opened -20 and 69% of Public on Oklahoma Pushed Line Up 1 Point

Bet Trends: Bears are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. Big 12 but 2-7 ATS last 9 road games.  Sooners are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall.  Bears are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and road team is 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings.

The Pick: Oklahoma -21 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 52 / Baylor 27

Game: Kansas St. -7 at TCU, O/U 60, 7pm on 11-10

Analysis: K-St is looking to go 10-0 this week but some uncertainty with QB Klein who was hurt last week.  The Wildcats are solid on both sides of the ball, although the record is deceiving, not a team that should be in the National Title picture.  TCU is a team with upset potential, and you never really know what you will get out of TCU, but this season they lack quality wins and are over-matched in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and Stead with 74% of Public on K-St. so Some Sharp $ Holding Line at 7

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 road games and 22-6-1 ATS last 29 Big 12 games.  Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS last 7 Big 12 games and 1-10 ATS last 11 following an ATS win. 

The Pick: Kansas St -6.5 @ 3 Units (Offered at 5 Dimes)

Predicted Score: Kansas St 38 / TCU 20

Game: Miss. St +15 at LSU, O/U 43.5, 7pm on 11-10

Analysis: The Bulldogs started 7-0 but have lost 2 straight now that it plays the tougher part of the schedule.  The Bulldogs have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and a good coach, but are under-achievers.  LSU is coming off an emotional loss in a game they should have won, and has started to look like the LSU of old, the QB even looked good last week finally.  The momentum and home field advantage favors LSU in a big win. 

Line Movement: Opened -15 and 65% of Public Bets on LSU

Bet Trends: Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS last 10 SEC games but 2-6 ATS last 8 road games.  Tigers are 9-4 ATS last 13 SEC games and 7-3 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Favorite is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings and Miss. St 3-11 ATS last 14 meetings.

The Pick: LSU -15 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: LSU 31 / Miss. St 13

Game: Oregon -28 at Cal, O/U 67.5, 10:30pm on 11-10

Analysis: Oregon is scoring 54 points per game and this is a team where you bet them on the first half line.  USC was able to keep it close last week showing that Oregon needs work on Defense.  Cal has lost 3 straight and has not looked good, the coach likely on his way out.  Cal's best players Maynard and Allen both injured heading into this one even makes it less likely they can compete.

Line Movement: Opened -27 and 88% of Public on Oregon (Squares)

Bet Trends: Ducks are 6-1 ATS last 7 road games and 24-8-2 ATS vs. losing teams.  Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS last 11 overall and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home. 

The Pick: Oregon -28 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oregon 59 / Cal 24

Game: Fresno St -3 at Nevada, O/U 70, 10:35pm on 11-10

Analysis: Fresno St is a fun team to watch, strong on both sides of the ball and actually gave Oregon a game earlier this season.  The passing attack is top tier and the defense thrives off turnovers.  Nevada comes in 6-3 with a completely different strategy, running the ball for 260 yards per game and stacked with talent on offense with Fajardo at QB and Jefferson at RB with 16 TDs.  Nevada is allowing 32 points/game and lost two straight to Air Force and SD St.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steamed a Bit Higher with 67% of Public Bets on Fresno St.

Bet Trends: Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS last 11 overall and 6-1 ATS last 7 Conf. games.  Wolf Pack are 4-9 ATS last 13 following a loss and 0-4 ATS last 4 at home.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick: Fresno St -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Fresno St 45 / Nevada 38