College Football Week 11 Preview and Picks

Game: Kent St. +3 at Bowling Green, O/U 47, 12pm on 11/17

Analysis:  Kent St. sits at 9-1 and with the 15th ranked rushing offense in the country, a team that went on the road and beat Rutgers a few weeks ago and has 2 1,000 yard rushers.  Bowling Green is 7-3 and one of the more defensive minded teams in the MAC, 9th in the country allowing just 15 points/game and 104 rushing yards per game with DT Chris Jones one of the nation's best defensive players.  Kent St. snuck into the Top 25 this week and the prior 2 MAC teams lost the week after making the Top 25 this season.  Anthon Samuel at RB for Bowling Green has really started to pick up his game and will be the key for the Falcons offense.  Bowling Green shut down an Ohio team last week that focused on the run and should have the advantage at home in a strength vs. strength matchup.

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and Steady with 66% of Public on Kent St but Line Holding

Bet Trends: Golden Flashes are 7-1 ATS last 8 overall and 5-0 ATS last 5 road games.  Falcons are 6-0 ATS last 6 overall, but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 vs. winning record teams.  Golden Flashes are 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick:  Bowling Green -2.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 27 / Kent St. 20

Game: Northwestern +7 at Michigan St, O/U 44, 12pm on 11/17

Analysis: Michigan St. sits at 5-5 and has lost 3 of 4 but those 3 losses by a total of 9 points to Iowan, Michigan, and Nebraska, and the loss prior to those was by 1 point to Ohio St.  Maxwell is a struggling QB and the team relies heavily on the Defense and RB Bell.  Northwestern comes in 7-3 and averaging 238 yards/game rushing, but has dropped 3 of 5.  This game is sure to be low scoring and grind it out, so a 7 point spread favors the cover.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 76% of Public Bets on Northwestern but Line Up Slightly, so Sharp $ on Michigan St

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS last 4 Big 10 games.  Spartans are 0-6 ATS last 6 home games.  Wildcats are 5-0 ATS last 5 at Michigan St and the road team 10-1 ATS last 11 meetings.

The Pick:  Northwestern +7 @ 3 Units (Money-Line Attractive)

Predicted Score: Northwestern 20 / Michigan St. 16

Game: Rutgers +6.5 at Cincinnati, O/U 47, 12pm on 11/17

Analysis: Rutgers is 8-1 without doing much this season of offense, but allowing just 13.4 points/game with the 5th best D in the country and held a Syracuse team to 15 points that can put up points.  The Bearcats also have a top D allowing just 18.8 points/game and 16th best rushing offense, a team with a new signal caller in Kay.  Cincy has the advantage with more offensive weapons and Rutger's lead RB Jamison injured his ankle last week. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and Steady with 62% of Public Bets on Rutgers

Bet Trends: Rutgers is 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 4-0 ATS in the Big East.  Bearcats are 6-0 ATS last 6 Big East games and 9-2 ATS last 11 overall.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Rutgers +6.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cincinnati 17 / Rutgers 13

Game: Central Florida +3 at Tulsa, O/U 56.5, 12pm on 11/17

Analysis: A matchup of two teams at 8-2, and UCF has won 6 straight, only losses of the season came to Ohio St and Missouri, upper tier football schools.  Tulsa averages 244 yards/game rushing and its 2 losses are to Iowa St and Arkansas.  UCF recently beat Marshall 54-17 while Tulsa only beat Marshall 45-38. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 60% of Public Bets on Tulsa but Line Down, So Sharp $ on UCF

Bet Trends: Knights are 12-3 ATS last 15 on the road against teams with winning home records, but 3-7 ATS last 10 after a win.  Golden Hurricanes are 16-5 ATS last 21 conference games.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick:  Central Florida +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Central Florida 38 / Tulsa 31

Game: Arkansas +7 at Mississippi St., O/U 55, 12:20pm on 11/17

Analysis: Arkansas has struggled this season but played fairly well at South Carolina last weekend and Tyler Wilson and Cobi Hamilton are an elite QB/WR combo.  The Bulldogs have dropped 3 straight after a 7-0 start and the offense has struggled, but should find success against Arkansas' susceptible D.  Miss. St has struggled to stop the pass the last 3 weeks, which happens to be Arkansas' strong point.  Miss. St thrived on turnovers to start the year and now faces an Arkansas team that has a -13 turnover margin. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and Steady with 77% of Public Bets on Miss. St with Sharps on Arkansas

Bet Trends: Razorbacks are 2-7 ATS last 9 overall and 1-8 ATS last 9 road games.  Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS last 11 home games, but 2-7 ATS last 9 after scoring < 20 points in the prior game.  Home Team is 9-1 ATS last 10 meetings and Arkansas is 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miss. St. 

The Pick: Mississippi St -6 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Mississippi St 27 / Arkansas 17

Game: USC -4 at UCLA, O/U 65, 3pm on 11/17

Analysis: USC bounced back from its two game losing streak and beat ASU last week after getting down early, but has struggled on the road this season.  The passing game is elite with Barkley/Lee/Woods, but the Defense has be suspect.  UCLA has won 4 straight and is one of the better turnaround stories this season with Freshman QB Hundley leading the way, and Franklin is a RB that will be playing on Sundays.  UCLA's defense has been up and down all season.  UCLA is 4th in the country in sacks with 4 per game, and needs to get that kind of pressure to keep pace with USC.  UCLA has a lot to prove in this rivalry game and will need to put together their best game of the season, and I think they can.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 63% of Public Bets on USC, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Trojans are 7-15 ATS last 22 after an ATS win and 3-7 ATS last 10 overall, also 0-5 ATS last 5 road games.  Bruins are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games, but 5-11 ATS last 16 after a win.  Home team is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings and USC 9-4 ATS last 13 meetings.

The Pick:  UCLA +4 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: UCLA 48 / USC 45

Game: NC State +17 at Clemson, O/U 64, 3:30pm on 11/17

Analysis:  The Wolfpack have put together a solid 6-4 season and this would be a huge upset, but a capable team with NFL prospect Glennon at QB and a quality secondary.  The team has lost 2 of 3 and to Virginia and UNC, inferior talent compared to Clemson.  Clemson is 9-1 and ranked 11th with the 12th best passing team and averaging 43 points/game.  This could be a trap game for Clemson looking ahead to South Carolina the following week. 

Line Movement: Opened -18.5 and Line Down to 16.5/17 Despite 71% Public on Clemson, so Sharp $ Strong on NC St.

Bet Trends: Wolfpack are 25-12-3 ATS vs. winning record teams, but 0-5-1 ATS last 6 on the road.  Tigers are 7-0 ATS last 7 overall and 25-10 ATS in the ACC.  Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings in Clemson, Road Team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings, and Underdog 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: NC St +17 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Clemson 37 / NC St. 27

Game: Texas Tech +10.5 at Oklahoma St, O/U 72, 3:30pm on 11/17

Analysis: The Red Raiders struggled vs. Kansas last week and lost to K. St and Texas the week's prior, on a bit of a slide.  Doege is as capable as any QB in the country and the D has improved, but struggled last week.  Oklahoma St. beat up on West Virginia last week and is an all around strong team in all aspects, and a dangerous team for years to come as its Freshman QB develops.  Randle should run wild against a Texas Tech team that allowed 390 rushing yards to Kansas. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 51% of Public Bets Texas Tech, No Sharp $ Signals but Line Fading

Bet Trends: Red Raiders are 7-3 ATS last 10 road games.  Cowboys are 4-1 ATS last 5 home games and 14-6 ATS last 20 Big 12 games.  Red Raiders are 1-6 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Oklahoma St -9.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma St 45 / Texas Tech 31

Game: Ohio St +3 at Wisconsin, O/U 53, 3:30pm on 11/17

Analysis: The 10-0 Badgers travel to Wisconsin to try and stay undefeated, but nothing to play for due to NCAA violations.  Wisconsin has looked a lot better lately, but most of its wins have come against the weaker teams in an already weak Big 10.  The Badgers D has been strong but faces dynamic QB Braxton Miller this week who you can draw some similarities to Taylor Martinez of Nebraska who led a comeback win vs. Wisconsin earlier this season.  Wisconsin also struggled against Utah St, a team with a mobile QB.  Urban Meyer is also 18-3 ATS in his career coming off bye weeks, so I have to go against the sharp $ in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 and Up to -2.5/3 with 76% Public Bets on Ohio St, so Sharp $ on Wisconsin

Bet Trends: Buckeyes are 27-10-1 ATS last 38 road games.  Badgers are 13-5-1 ATS last 19 home games, but 0-5 ATS last 5 following a game in which it scored 40+ points.  Home Team 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and Underdog is 9-3 ATS last 12 meetings.

The Pick: Ohio St +3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Ohio St 23 / Wisconsin 20

Game: Ole Miss +18.5 at LSU, O/U 50.5, 3:30pm on 11/17

Analysis:  The 5-5 Rebels have dropped two straight but have played well at home this season, including just losing by 3 to Texas A&M, and has struggled on the road.  Ole Miss has plenty of talent at the skill positions, but struggles in the trenches, which happens to be where LSU dominates.  LSU has turned things around now that the QB looks capable, but a team that does not cover wide spreads, only beat Auburn by 2 and Towson by 16.  Bo Wallace for Ole Miss at QB makes a lot of great plays, but is also mistake prone, and LSU is a team that capitalizes on mistakes.  Ole Miss scored 14 at Alabama and 10 at Georgia.

Line Movement: Opened -20 and Down to -18.5 with 58% Public Bets LSU, so Sharp $ on Ole Miss

Bet Trends: Rebels are 6-13 ATS last 19 SEC games and 1-11 ATS last 12 November games.  LSU is 10-4 ATS last 14 SEC games and 11-5 ATS last 16 after a win.  Rebels are 8-0 ATS last 8 games at LSU and Road Team 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings. 

The Pick: LSU -18.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: LSU 31 / Ole Miss 10

Game: Utah St. -3 at Louisiana Tech, O/U 71.5, 4pm on 11/17

Analysis:  It's not often I get to dive into a WAC game but with 8-2 Utah St. at 9-1 L-Tech, this is a good week to start.  Utah St has a balanced offensive attack with dual threat Keeton at QB and ranks 6th nationally with 13.5 points allowed per game.  L-Tech is averaging 53.4 points/game, 2nd in the country, and allows 36.2/game, 111th, so a real interesting matchup this week.  L-Tech allowed 55 to a Texas St. team that Utah St held to 7 last week.  Utah St. also is coming off a bye and extra prep time for the L-Tech hurry-up offense. 

Line Movement: Opened with Louisiana Tech -1 and Steamed to Utah St -3 with 43% of Public on Utah St., so Smart $ on Utah St

Bet Trends: Aggies are 7-0 ATS last 7 after a win and 9-1-1 ATS last 11 overall.  Bulldogs are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 overall.  Favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Utah St. -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Utah St 45 / Louisiana Tech 38

Game: Tennessee +4 at Vanderbilt, O/U 60, 7pm on 11/17

Analysis: Tennessee lost in triple OT last week to Missouri, a game that was stolen with the D unable to stop anyone when it counts.  Offensively Bray, Neal, Hunter, and Patterson are all elite prospects and this team can hang with anyone as seen with Georgia and South Carolina earlier this season.  Boyd and Matthews are nice weapons on the outside for Vandy that should have success and try to beat Tennessee at home for the first time since 1982 and possibly result in a coaching change for the Vols.  Vandy is on a 4 game streak but did lose to Georgia 45-3 earlier this year, a team Tenn. almost beat.

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Down Slightly with 55% of Public Bets on Tennessee

Bet Trends: Volunteers are 3-10-1 ATS last 14 SEC games.  Commodores are 10-3 ATS last 13 home games.  Road Team is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings and Vols 4-1 ATS last 5 at Vandy. 

The Pick: Vandy -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 34 / Tennessee 30

Game: Oklahoma -11.5 at West Virginia, O/U 74, 7pm on 11/17

Analysis: The Sooners have won 5 of 6, but against the weaker teams in the Big 12.  Landry Jones has been inconsistent and the running game has succumb to some injuries, but the D has been steady.  WVU has now lost 4 straight and has not been very competitive, a lot of talent on offense although Geno Smith was highly overrated, and the D can't stop anyone allowing 41 points/game.  Oklahoma likely focuses its efforts on stopping the pass this week and that will make WVU uncomfortable. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 67% of Public Bets on Oklahoma with One Sharp Book on WVU

Bet Trends: Sooners are 4-1 ATS last 5 Big 12 games.  Mountaineers are 3-13 ATS last 16 home games vs. teams with winning road records. 

The Pick: Oklahoma -11.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 52 / West Virginia 34

Game: Syracuse +5.5 at Missouri, O/U 54.5, 7pm on 11/17

Analysis: Syracuse is coming off of its biggest week this season ending Louisville's undefeated season and continues to be impressive on offense with Nassib at QB.  Missouri won an OT thriller at Tennessee and has hung with some top SEC teams for the most part this season, but riddled by injuries and Franklin's inconsistent QB play.  Syracuse has lost 3 of 4 on the road. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 70% Public Bets on Missouri

Bet Trends: Orange are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 overall and 2-9 ATS last 11 after a win, also 1-8 ATS last 9 road games.  Missouri is 24-3 ATS last 27 after allowing 40+ points in prior game, but 2-7 ATS last 9 after a win.

The Pick:  Syracuse +5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Missouri 31 / Syracuse 27

Game: Kansas St. -12 at Baylor, O/U 74, 8pm on 11/17

Analysis: The 10-0 Wildcats go on the road after only winning its last two games by 14 and 13 points against subpar teams.  K. St is a well-rounded team with a great coach, but is undeserving of the praise received.  Baylor has lost 4 of 5 but is a sneaky good team, losing just by 8 to Oklahoma last week.  Florence has been solid at QB and Williams is one of the top WR's in the country, but the D has allowed a ton of points.  It would be a good story to see Baylor pull the upset and get some revenge, but K-St will get a lot more defensive stops and pull away.

Line Movement: Opened -11 and Up to -13 with 83% Public Bets on K. St

Bet Trends: Wildcats are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 after an ATS win and 23-6-1 ATS last 30 Big 12 games.  Bears are 10-2 ATS last 12 home games and 9-4 ATS last 13 overall.  Wildcats are 6-2 ATS lat 8 meetings, but Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick:  Kansas St. -12 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 45 / Baylor 27

Game: Stanford +20.5 at Oregon, O/U 64.5, 8pm on 11/17

Analysis: Stanford is 8-2 and no pushover with the best front 7 in the Pac 12 and held a USC team to 14 points earlier this season that has similar speed as Oregon.  Stanford's issues have mostly been on offense but that should not be a problem against the Ducks D.  Oregon is averaging nearly 55 points/game and has been unstoppable, but this will be the best defense they have faced since Fresno St, a team that they only beat by 17.  Stanford's Hogan at QB making his second career start against an Oregon team that has forced 29 turnovers and in a hostile environment.

Line Movement: Opened -21.5 and 52% of Public Bets on Oregon

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 21-6-1 ATS last 28 after an ATS win and 16-5-1 ATS last 22 road games.  Ducks are 5-0 ATS last 5 Pac 12 games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games vs. teams with winning home records.  Stanford is 2-8 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Oregon -20.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oregon 48 / Stanford 17