NFL Week 10 Picks

*** We have 4 games this week with double-digit home favorites (Steelers, Ravens, Pats, and 49ers).  It is unlikely all cover as favorites and I would venture to say the Bills have the best chance, but like all the favorites.

Game: Buffalo +11 at New England, O/U 52, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Bills come in 3-5 desperate to save their season and fought hard last week on the road against a strong Texans team.  Buffalo has two great RBs but have not been able to stop anyone and get forced to throw and make mistakes.  The Pats are well rested coming off a bye week and after the offense exploded for 45 against the Rams on a Neutral field.  New England has more of a balance of offense this season and stops the run on D, so has a major advantage in this game.  The Bills may be able to keep it close early, but the Pats should pull away and win easy.

Line Movement: Opened -12 and 79% Public Bets on Patriots

Bet Trends: Bills are 4-11 ATS last 15 AFC games and 0-4 ATS last 4 AFC East games.  Pats are 9-4 ATS last 13 AFC East games but 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  The favorite is 20-6-1 ATS last 27 meetings and Bills are 7-19-1 ATS.

The Pick: Pats -11 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Pats 41 / Bills 27

Game: NY Giants -3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 49, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Bengals really should have won last week versus the Broncos and now at 3-5 after losing 4 straight, and really need to win this week.  Cincy relied heavily on its passing game, and defensively the strong suit is rushing the QB and a deep and talented secondary.  The Giants are 6-3 and coming off a loss to the Steelers at home and have looked sloppy the last few weeks, starting to unravel.  Eli could struggle in this game especially in the weather, and on defense the secondary is vulnerable to AJ Green just going off in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 with 80% of Public on Giants, Yet Line Down to -3.5/-4, so Sharp $ on Bengals

Bet Trends: Giants are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 overall, but 1-7 ATS last 8 Week 10 games.  Bengals are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 after allowing 350+ yards in prior game and 6-17-3 ATS following a loss. 

The Pick: Bengals +4 @ 3 Units (Sharps Got a Better Number, but Upset Potential on Money Line Here)

Predicted Score: Bengals 31 / Giants 27

Game: San Diego +3 at Tampa Bay, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 11-1

Analysis: The Chargers stopped a 3 game skid last Thursday against the Chiefs and had some extra rest this week.  Rivers has looked terrible this season and is missing Vincent Jackson, who is now on the Bucs.  On the other hand the Bucs offense has been explosive and the passing and running games are both hitting on all cylinders.  Tampa has won 3 of 4 and is very underrated, and on Defense ranks 1st against the run and last against the pass.  The Bucs take better care of the football as well with a much better turnover margin.  This game should put Norv Turner back on the hot seat.

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 61% of Public on Bucs, Not Much Movement

Bet Trends: Chargers are 8-3 ATS last 11 games on grass.  Bucs are 6-2 ATS last 8 overall, but just 8-23 ATS last 31 at home.

The Pick: Bucs -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bucs 30 / Chargers 23

Game: Broncos -4 at Panthers, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Broncos have won 3 straight and have tended to get down early and then come firing back.  Manning is leading the 4th ranked passing offense and the D is near the Top 10 in both the pass and run.  Miller and Dumervil for the Broncos give opposing QBs all sorts of problems and Cam Newton has been shaky in the pocket all season.  The Panthers are coming off their 2nd win of the year and the D played really well last week, so some positive momentum and although 2-6 have been in most games. 

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and 82% of Public on Broncos but Line Down to -4 with Sharp $ on Carolina

Bet Trends: Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 5-16-1 ATS games after scoring 30+ points.  Panthers are 2-6 ATS last 8 home games.

The Pick: Panthers +4 @ 1 Unit (Line Movement Play)

Predicted Score: Broncos 27 / Panthers 24

Game: Titans +6 at Dolphins, O/U 44, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Titans are coming off a 51-20 blowout loss where the team turned the ball over right from the start.  On defense the Titans rank near the bottom of the league and a QB change this week with Locker getting the start, a player I like but the team plays better under Hasselbeck.  The Dolphins are 4-4 and still in the playoff hunt and will look to rebound from last week's loss after winning 3 straight.  Tannehill has been sharp and Bush has shown flashes while the D should harass Locker all day and the 3rd ranked run D should contain Chris Johnson. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 with 63% of Public on Miami, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Titans are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 road games and 3-9-1 ATS last 13 overall.  Dolphins are 8-1 ATS after a loss and 9-3 ATS last 12 vs. the AFC.

The Pick: Dolphins -6 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Dolphins 30 / Titans 17

Game: Raiders +9.5 at Ravens, O/U 46.5, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Raiders have to make the long trip back to the East Coast and have tended to play poorly on those trips and in this game are without top 2 RBs McFadden and Goodson, so will rely on Carson Palmer and the 6th ranked passing game.  The D played great in the first half last week and then fell apart allowing the Bucs to run for 200+ yards, but will get one of its 2 starting CB's back this week for the pass D, but also without Seymour the leader on D.  Baltimore has won 5 of 6 but seems to have fallen out of contender talk.  The D is not the same and has suffered injuries but Suggs should have a big day with the Raiders right tackle Willie Smith a terrible pass blocker.  Ray Rice should also have a big day, a similar runner to Doug Martin.   Oakland tends to play better against good teams, but the odds are stacked against them this week with injuries and the road trip.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 65% of Public on Ravens, Line Steamed to -9.5

Bet Trends: The underdog is 10-1 ATS last 11 Raider games.  Raiders are 17-6-1 ATS following a ATS loss and 9-4 ATS last 13 road games.  Ravens are 1-6 ATS last 7 home games and 0-4 ATS last 4 after a win.  Home Team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Raiders 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. the Ravens.

The Pick: Ravens -9.5 @ 2Units

Predicted Score: Baltimore 34 / Oakland 23

Game: Falcons -2 at Saints, O/U 53.5

Analysis: The undefeated Falcons face a tough road test this week and likely the only team that can beat them for the remainder of the season.  Matt Ryan has been lights out all season long but Atlanta has been cutting it close in games.  The Saints are back winning 3 of 4 and have some momentum, but the D still ranks near last in the league and one dimensional on offense.  The status of Witherspoon for the Falcons is the key to this game and whether Atlanta can contain the Saints passing game. 

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 and 60% of Public on Atlanta, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Falcons are 6-2 ATS last 8 overall and 19-7-1 ATS vs. losing record teams.  Saints are 14-3 ATS last 17 home games and 20-7 ATS last 27 vs. winning record teams.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Saints +3 @ 1 Unit (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Saints 30 / Falcons 27

Game: Lions -2 at Vikings, O/U 46, 1pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Lions have won 3 of 4 and getting back into the hunt with the top ranked passing offense starting to come alive and the D actually is ranked 8th against the pass and 14th against the run.  The Vikings have dropped 3 of 4 and likely without do-it-all man Percy Harvin this week, a huge loss that will allow Detroit to focus solely on stopping Peterson. 

Line Movement: Opened Vikings -2 and 79% of Public on Lions Moving Line (Harvin Injury Related)

Bet Trends: Lions are 4-11 ATS last 15 vs. NFC teams and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. NFC North.  Vikings are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 vs. NFC North and 2-6-1 ATS last 9 at home.  Lions are 1-4-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Lions -2 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Lions 24 / Vikings 16

Game: Jets +6 at Seahawks, O/U 38.5, 4:05pm on 11-11

Analysis: The Jets have dropped 4 of 5 and you really never know what you will get out of them, other than Sanchez looking terrible, that is consistent.  The Seahawks play great at home and Jets making a long flight, and defensively should be able to cause havoc.  Wilson has looked better at QB lately and Lynch should have a big game running.  Seattle typically is not the type of team to cover a 6 point spread, but Special Teams and D could account for 2 TD's in this one alone.  Seattle is 27th in the league on 3rd down D and needs to improve in that area.  A big factor in this game is Seattleis without KJ Wright, a top player on D and the reason Peterson busted loose for 180 yards last week. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 with 51% Public on Seattle, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Jets are 4-1 ATS last 5 following a loss.  Seahawks are 4-0 ATS last 4 at home and 4-1 ATS last 5 overall. 

The Pick:  Seattle -6 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Seahawks 23 / Jets 13

Game: Cowboys -1.5 at Eagles, O/U 44, 4:25pm on 11-11

Analysis: Two struggling teams with the Cowboys losing 4 of 5 and the team chemistry falling apart.  Dallas has plenty of weapons, but the running game is really missing Murray.  On D Ware should have a great week against a very poor Eagles O-Line, but they also are missing Sean Lee big time.  The Eagles have lost 4 straight with Vick struggling with turnovers and staying in the pocket, and the D has also been a letdown.  The Eagles need to call better plays and utilize McCoy on screens to take the pressure off Vick.  This game comes down to which team has less turnovers and penalties, and I think the Eagles can finally put together a complete game as they typically thrive in the divisional games. 

Line Movement: Opened Eagles -1.5 and 78% of Public on Dallas, Now Dallas -2, No Sharp $ Moves

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 21-9-1 ATS last 31 after allowing 250+ passing yards, but just 4-11 ATS last 15 overall and 1-7 ATS last 8 vs. NFC East teams.  Eagles are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 vs. NFC East but 1-6-1 ATS last 8 overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 at home.  Cowboys are 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings and the Underdog is 11-5 ATS last 16 meetings.

The Pick: Eagles +2 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Eagles 23 / Cowboys 20

Game: Rams +12 at 49ers, O/U 38.5, 4:25pm on 11-11

Analysis: Rams are coming off a bye after being thrashed by the Pats in London, and have not played well on the road all year.  The offense has limited talent and on D they have a good D-Line and Secondary, but the linebackers are a weak spot.  The 49ers are also coming off a bye and have the league's best rushing offense and Top 5 defensively in run and pass, and should be set to potentially post a shut-out.  Alex Smith looked strong his last outing and Crabtree developing into a #1 WR. 

Line Movement: Opened -12 and 67% of Public Bets on 49ers, No Line Moves

Bet Trends: Rams are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. the NFC but 9-19 ATS vs. NFC West and 3-10 ATS last 13 road games.  49ers are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 at home and 19-7-1 ATS last 27 overall.  49ers are however just 4-12-2 ATS after a 14+ point win.  Home team 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings, and Rams 3-8 ATS last 11 games in San Fran. 

The Pick: 49ers -12 @ 1 Units

Predicted Score: 49ers 23 / Rams 9

Game: Texans +1.5 at Bears, O/U 40, 8:20pm on 11-11

Analysis: The 7-1 Texans have been one of the league's best at covering spreads and have a balanced offense and stout D led by JJ Watt.  The Bears are also 7-1, a bit surprising, and struggle protecting the QB at times and Cutler not a great Primetime performer.  The Bears have a nice 1-2 punch at RB with Forte and Bush and the D has scored a ton of TDs this season, but the Texans are not a team that makes a lot of mistakes.  Devin Hester could prove to be a deciding factor on special teams in what should be a close one and a great watch, potential Super Bowl preview.  The Texans only loss this year was against a NFC North team, but Cutler is no Aaron Rodgers.

Line Movement: Opened -1 and Steady with 60% Public on Texans but Bears Holding Steady Line, Small Sharp Action

Bet Trends: Texans are 16-3-2 ATS last 21 games on grass and 7-2 ATS last 9 road games, also 18-7-2 ATS last 27 overall.  Bears are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 games in November. 

The Pick: Texans +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Houston 27 / Bears 23

Game: Chiefs +12 at Steelers, O/U 42, 8:30pm on 11-12

Analysis: The Chiefs are the worst team in Football, no answer at QB and although the D has the talent, they have been hurt by field position due to the offense's turnovers.  Chiefs have a chance to stay in this one if they run, run, run and get Charles the ball early and often.  The Steelers come in with a top-ranked D and the offense is finally getting the ground attack going with Dwyer and Redman.  Big Ben is as good as any QB in the league at making plays, but will be without playmaker Antonio Brown this week (making Emmanuel Sanders a good fantasy pickup). 

Line Movement: Opened -12.5 and 78% of Public on Steelers, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Chiefs are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. AFC teams, but 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams.  Steelers are 10-4 ATS last 14 home games, but just 3-9 ATS last 12 after a ATS win and 2-6 ATS last 8 vs. AFC teams.  Home Team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Steelers -12 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Steelers 27 / Chiefs 13