NFL Week 11 Picks

Game: Eagles +3 at Redskins, O/U 44, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Eagles have lost 5 straight and have a coach on the hot-seat and will be starting rookie QB Foles in this one on the road against the Skins who are coming off a bye, so RG3 should return to form.  The Skins are also 3-6 and ranked 30th in passing allowed, but are stout against the run and rank 2nd in rushing offense.  The Redskins get a boost on offense with Garcon finally slated to return. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 70% Public on Skins (Sharps Holding It w/ Philly)

Bet Trends: Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 vs. NFC East but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall and 5-15-1 ATS in games following a loss.  Skins are 7-2 ATS last 9 vs. NFC East but 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Philly 4-1-1 ATS last 6 in Washington.

The Pick:  Redskins -3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Redskins 30 / Eagles 20

Game: Packers -3 at Lions, O/U 52, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Packers are coming off a bye following 4 straight wins.  The offense remains 1-dimensional with the passing game and the Defense has been suspect at times with some key injuries.  The Lions are 4-5 and really need this game, and have been in most games this year with the top ranked passing offense and ranked 7th against the pass.  Detroit has allowed 4 special teams TDs this season and the Packers have one of the best in Cobb that could play a big role. Detroit has become more balanced on offense with Leshoure at RB and should help keep Rodgers off the field.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 81% of Public on Green Bay with Sharp $ on Detroit

Bet Trends: Packers are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. NFC North teams.  Lions are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall but 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. NFC North teams.  Packers are 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Detroit.

The Pick: Lions +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Lions 31 / Packers 30

Game: Cardinals +9.5 at Falcons, O/U 44, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Cards have dropped 5 straight since starting 4-0 and are coming off a bye week.  They rank 2nd against the pass which is key in a game against the Falcons.  Arizona struggles on offense without a running game and with Kolb still out.  Atlanta is coming off its first loss of the season and has been involved in tight games all season.  The D is ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and Down to 9.5/10 Despite 66% Public on Atlanta, so Signs of Sharp $ on Arizona

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS last 6 overall and 7-17-1 ATS last 25 on turf.  Falcons are 21-6 ATS last 27 after a loss and 12-4-1 ATS last 17 vs. losing teams.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Arizona +10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Atlanta 20 / Arizona 13

Game: Bucs -1 at Panthers, O/U 48, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The 5-4 Bucs have won 4 of 5 and Freeman is playing like an elite QB with weapons on the outside and rookie RB Martin impressive.  Tampa has lost a lot of key players up front, but has not lost a beat.  The D is 1st against the run and last against the pass.  The 2-7 Panthers have struggled all season but mostly in tight games, and lost to start the season 16-10 to the Bucs.  Newton has not looked comfortable and has made too many mistakes, also the Panthers kick-coverage exposed last week.  Tampa will make the Panthers 1-dimensional and then capitalize on key turnovers.

Line Movement: Opened -1 and Steady with 81% of Public on Tampa, No Line Movement Signals Some Sharp $ Countering with Carolina

Bet Trends: Bucs are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. NFC South.  Panthers are 0-4 ATS last 4 at home.  Favorite is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Bucs -1 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 27 / Panthers 21

Game: Browns +8.5 at Cowboys, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Browns are coming off a bye and were playing some of their best football in recent weeks, a ground game bolstered by rookie Richardson and Weeden has looked great when his WR's are making the catches.  The D has struggled in both the run and pass games.  Dallas is coming off a big win in Philly but did not look too impressive, and has played a lot of close games.  The offense is missing Murray at RB (may return this week), and the D stops the pass better than the run, but ranked in the Top 13 in both.  The success of the Cowboys lies with how many times Romo makes costly mistakes. 

Line Movement: Opened at 8 and 51% Public on Cowboys, Line at 7.5/9.5 Depending on the Book, so Shop Around

Bet Trends: Browns are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 after a loss and 5-2-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Cowboys are 5-11 ATS last 16 overall and 1-7 ATS last 8 after a win. .

The Pick: Browns +9.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Cowboys 24 / Browns 20

Game: Jets +3 at Rams, O/U 38.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Jets have been dominated in 2 straight games and just a team that lacks any playmakers on offense and the D has been mediocre, stopping the pass but not the run.  The Rams love playing at home and coming off a Tie vs. the 49ers, and have a great D-Line and Secondary that should create a few turnovers, while on offense the return of Amendola has really boosted the team, especially on 3rd downs.  Look for a balanced attack and should have the Jets off balance all game.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 71% of Public on Rams with Line Up to 3.5 at Some Books

Bet Trends: Jets are 4-9 ATS last 13 road games.  Rams are 7-3 ATS last 10 overall, but 2-7 ATS vs. teams with losing records.  Jets are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Rams -3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Rams 26 / Jets 13

Game: Jaguars +15.5 at Texans, O/U 40.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Jags have the league's 30th ranked rushing offense and 31st passing, really missing MJD.  The Defense is not much better, 23rd vs. the pass and 29th vs. the run.  The Colts and Lions have handed them 17 point losses the last two weeks.  The Texans are coming off an impressive road win in Chicago is a sloppy weather game and return home with a top D and balanced offense.  The Texans should run-away in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -16 with 57% of Public on Texans and Line Down to 14.5/15.5

Bet Trends: Jaguars are 5-0 ATS last 5 road games but 7-19-1 ATS vs. winning record teams.  Texans are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 at home and 19-7-2 ATS overall.  Jags are 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games in Houston.

The Pick: Texans -15 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Houston 38 / Jacksonville 13

Game: Bengals -3.5 at Chiefs, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Bengals are coming off their most impressive win of the year against the Giants and dominated with a great passing game and a D that forced turnovers.  The Chiefs played Monday Night and lost to the Steelers in OT, a game that was ugly, and a team that can run the ball and stop the pass, but struggles to make plays in the passing game and turns the ball over too often. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 79% of Public on Bengals but Line Holding Steady

Bet Trends: Bengals are 10-4 ATS following a win, but 1-11-2 ATS last 14 vs. AFC teams.  Chiefs are 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 4-9 ATS vs. the AFC. 

The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 17 / Chiefs 16

Game: Saints -4.5 at Raiders, O/U 54, 4:05pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Saints are one of the NFL's hottest teams with a 4-1 record the last 5 and beating the Falcons last week.  The offense is 2nd in passing and has a ton of weapons, while the D ranks near the bottom of the league.  The Raiders were blown out last week and have allowed nearly 100 points the last two games, and without top defensive player in the secondary this week, Branch.  On offense Carson Palmer is doing everything he can leading the 5th ranked passing game, but this week not only is McFadden out at RB again, but top WR target DHB also out as injuries continue to haunt the Raiders. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 with 85% of Public on Saints but Line Down to 4.5 with Sharp $ on Oakland

Bet Trends: Saints are 10-2 ATS last 12 after a win and 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Raiders are 10-3 ATS last 13 Week 11 games and 17-7-1 ATS last 25 after an ATS loss, but 1-4-1 ATS last 6 at home. 

The Pick: Saints -4.5 @ 2 Units (Bet Against the Sharps and with the Squares)

Predicted Score: Saints 41 / Raiders 30

Game: Colts +10 at Patriots, O/U 53.5, 4:25pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Manning-Brady battle has turned to Luck-Brady and the rookie QB has been excellent winning 4 straight and a team playing with a ton of emotion for their coach.  The Colts are efficient on offense, balanced, and the D has done enough to keep them in games, but does need improvement and its biggest test since Green Bay this week.  The Pats escaped with a win last week and have been inconsistent all season, but Brady still leads an efficient passing attack, but the D ranks 29th against the pass. 

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 56% of Public on Colts has Line 9/10 at Books

Bet Trends: Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall and 8-2 ATS last 10 on turf.  Pats are 2-5 ATS last 7 after a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home.

The Pick: Colts +10 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 24 / Pats 30

Game: Chargers +8 at Broncos, O/U 48.5, 4:25pm on 11/18

Analysis: The Chargers have lost 4 of 5 with the lone win being vs. the Chiefs, and Rivers has been making terrible decisions.  The D ranks 2nd against the run, 18th against the pass.  The Broncos have won 4 straight and the D is Top 10 and 3rd ranked passing game with Manning sharp as ever inside of 20 yards.  The O-Line has done a great job protecting him and he has enough playmakers to move the ball, though Thomas was hurt last week and important to check his status.  Denver also has big playmakers on D and against a team that struggles to protect the QB.

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 69% of Public on Broncos and True Steam to 7.5/8.5 Now

Bet Trends: Chargers are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. AFC teams and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. AFC West, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Broncos are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC West but just 16-33-2 ATS at home and 6-16-1 ATS last 23 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Chargers are 4-0-4 ATS last 8 games in Denver and 8-3-2 ATS overall vs. Denver last 13. 

The Pick: Broncos -7.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Broncos 31 / Chargers 17

Game: Ravens -2.5 at Steelers, O/U 41.5, 8:0pm on 11/18

Analysis: Baltimore is 7-2 and a full array of weapons on offense with Flacco playing great and still yet to really get Ray Rice going.  The D ranks 26th against the run and pass but faces a Steelers team without Big Ben, a huge loss.  The Steelers have won 4 straight and the D has led the way despite injuries.  It will be tough for the Steelers to have much success offensively this week, and the D will eventually fold from being on the field too long. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 72% of Public Bets on the Ravens, Line Up to 3.5 at Most Books with True $ Steam

Bet Trends: Ravens are 6-2-1 ATS vs. AFC North and 17-7-2 ATS last 26 after scoring 30+ in prior game.  Steelers are 9-4 ATS last 13 vs. AFC North but just 2-8 ATS last 10 after a win.  Underdog is 7-3-1 ATS last 11 meetings. 

The Pick: Ravens -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 20 / Steelers 13

Game: Bears +6 at 49ers, O/U , 8:30am on 11/19

Analysis: The Bears are 7-2 but are likely without Cutler this week, not necessarily a bad thing for a team that relies of the great defense and can focus on field position and running the ball this week.  The 49ers had allowed 6 or less points in 5 straight before last week's game.  Coach Harbaugh had a heart procedure this week that could mess up this week's game-plan a bit.  They may struggle to run the ball and likely still without their starting QB as well, so this could be an ugly Monday nighter.

Line Movement: Line is Off at Most Books on Cutler Status, but Caesars at 6

Bet Trends: Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 5-2 ATS last 7 MNF games.  49ers are 21-6 ATS last 27 MNF games and 12-4-1 ATS last 17 at home.  Home Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Bears +6 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bears 16 / 49ers 13