NFL Week 12 Picks

Game: Raiders +8 at Bengals, O/U 49, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Raiders have lost 3 straight and allowed 135 points in those games, awful defense.  The offense is missing McFadden but turnovers and inability to score in the Red Zone have hurt the output.  Bengals have looked impressive the last 2 weeks and Dalton to Green should be set for a big day, and an opportunistic D should pressure the QB and force some turnovers allowing them to pull away.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 62% of Public Bets Bengals Pushing Line Higher

Bet Trends: Raiders are 17-8-1 ATS last 26 after an ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Bengals are 11-4 ATS last 15 following a win, 2-11-2 STS vs. the AFC, and 1-4-1 ATS last 6 at home.  Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Bengals -8 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bengals 34 / Raiders 23

Game: Steelers -1 at Browns, O/U 34, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Steelers are down to a 3rd QB in Batch but the D held the Ravens without an offensive TD and will rely heavily on that group again this week.  The Browns are playing some great football and coming up short, but the offense is balanced and the D has played well until letting leads slip away late.  It sets up to be an ugly low scoring game.

Line Movement: No Movement, Line Off at Most Books

Bet Trends: Steelers are 10-1 ATS last 11 after a loss, but 2-7 ATS last 9 road games.  Browns are 9-4-1 ATS last 14 overall and 5-1-1 ATS vs. AFC North. 

The Pick: Browns +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Browns 16 / Steelers 13

Game: Bills +3 at Colts, O/U 51, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Bills are coming off a big win vs. Miami and finally played well defensively, but rank 31st vs. the run.  Offensively the team is inconsistent, hurt by turnovers, and needs to get Spiller the ball 20+ times.  Colts snapped a 4 game win streak last week, over-matched, but will look to bounce back this week, and Luck needs to show poise rebounding from last week.   

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 75% of Public Bets on Colts

Bet Trends: Bills are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 after a win.  Colts are 6-0 ATS following a loss and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home., but 3-13 ATS vs. losing record teams.  Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Colts -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Colts 27 / Bills 20

Game: Broncos -10 at Chiefs, O/U 44, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Chiefs offensive woes continued last week scoring 6 points vs. the Bengals and have no passing attack.  Defensively the team does stop the pass fairly well, but Dalton lit them up last week.  The 7-3 Broncos have won 5 straight and the Defense is playing very well, star players at each level and should harass the QB all game, while Manning should pick apart the D even without McGahee. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 81% of Public Bets Broncos with Some Sharp $ on Chiefs with Home Double-Digit Underdogs a History of Covering in the NFL

Bet Trends: Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall and 5-2 ATS vs. AFC West.  Chiefs are 4-10 ATS vs. AFC teams and 1-5 ATS last 6 at home.  Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 in KC and Road Team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings, but Underdog is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Broncos -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Chiefs 13 / Broncos 31

Game: Titans -3 at Jaguars, O/U 44.5, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Titans are coming off a bye week following a 37-3 thrashing of the Dolphins and Locker back at QB.  The D continues to rank near the bottom of the league in yards allowed.  The Jags rank near last in every statistical category but last week fought the Texans hard and found a spark with Henne at QB, and Blackmon came alive.  The D still was nowhere to be found and remains an issue.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 64% of Public Bets Titans, Steady Line

Bet Trends:  Titans are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 overall and 0-4-1 ATS vs. AFC South teams.  Jaguars are 0-5 ATS last 5 at home. 

The Pick: Titans -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Titans 27 / Jaguars 17

Game: Vikings at Bears, O/U , 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: The 6-4 Vikings got back on track before the bye week with a win vs. the Lions and Peterson is playing as well as ever, but the key will be if Harvin returns for the offense.  The Bears were embarrassed on MNF and QB situation is up in the air, offense really struggling and should see a lot of sacks again with a terrible O-Line.  The D was exposed last week as well and seems to be giving up due to the offenses struggles.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5

Bet Trends: Vikings are 4-11-3 ATS last 18 vs. winning record teams and 4-12 ATS last 16 following a win.  Beats are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home.  Favorite is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and Vikings are 0-4 ATS last 4 in Chicago.

The Pick: Vikings +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Vikings 13 / Bears 17

Game: Falcons -1 at Bucs, O/U 50, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Falcons are starting to struggle due to a lack of a ground attack and Ryan making poor decisions the last two weeks, but easy to be corrected, still a teams tacked with talent.  Bucs have now won 4 straight and Freeman playing fantastic as are the RBs and WRs, while the D ranks last against the pass and first against the run, a troubling matchup for this game against the pass-happy Falcons.  The Bucs however do have 15 interceptions this season, 3rd in the league.

Line Movement: Opened Even and 79% of Public Bets on Falcons with Smart $ on Bucs

Bet Trends: Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and 23-9-1 after an ATS loss, but 2-5 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams.  Bucs are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall, but 9-23 ATS last 32 at home.  Falcons are 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings, but road team 5-2 ATS last 7.

The Pick: Bucs +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 27 / Falcons 23

Game: Seahawks -3 at Dolphins, O/U 37.5, 1pm on 11-25

Analysis: Seattle is coming off a bye after two wins and the offense has looked sharp, but historically a much better home team.  Miami's early season success was short-lived and now dropped 3 straight.  Seattle has an explosive pass rush and Tannehill is starting to look like a rookie, so turnovers may be a problem.  Sidney Rice and Golden Tate are turning into trusting targets for Wilson that has boosted the offense. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 77% of Public Bets on Seattle

Bet Trends: Seahawks are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 9-21-1 ATS last 31 road games and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games on grass.  Dolphins are 8-3 ATS last 11 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Seahawks are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings, but Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Seattle -3 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Seattle 23 / Miami 13

Game: Baltimore -1 at San Diego, O/U 46.5, 4:05pm on 11-25

Analysis: Baltimore is 8-2 but still has a lot of questions and Flacco has struggled on the road.  San Diego looks terrible but has been able to stop the run, and it seems Rivers can get hot at any time and bust his slump, and this may just be the week. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 78% of Public Bets Ravens, but Line Down Says Sharp $ on San Diego

Bet Trends: Ravens are 5-11 ATS last 16 road games vs. teams with losing home records.  Chargers are 9-2 ATS last 11 vs. AFC teams and 9-4 ATS last 13 on grass.  Home Team is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings and Ravens 2-5 ATS last 7 in San Diego.

The Pick: San Diego +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: San Diego 27 / Baltimore 24

Game: 49ers -1.5 at Saints, O/U 48.5, 4:25pm on 11-25

Analysis: The 49ers rolled over the Bears and Kaepernick looked very good at QB and could make this offense more dangerous while the D is already elite.  Saints have won 6 of 7 after an 0-4 start and have taken advantage of a weak schedule, so this will prove to be a much tougher matchup.  The 49ers D is playing too well even with the game on the road, and should contain the Saints.

Line Movement: 

Bet Trends: 49ers are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 overall, but 10-25-4 ATS following 14+ point wins.  Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall and 15-3 ATS last 18 at home.  Home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick: 49ers -1.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: 49ers 30 / Saints 24

Game: Rams +1 at Cardinals, O/U 37.5, 4:25pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Rams are coming off one of their poorest performances with a loss to the Jets.  The Rams have plenty of offensive firepower when healthy and the D is great at pass-rushing and pass coverage.  The Cardinals offense is terrible, but the D gave them an opportunity to win last week.  I do not expect Jeff Fisher's Rams to make a lot of mistakes, and the Rams are the better team.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 56% of Public Bets Cardinals with Smart $ on Rams

Bet Trends: Rams are 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. NFC teams, but 4-10 ATS last 14 road games.  Cardinals are 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall.  Favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings and Rams are 3-7 ATS last 10 meetings. 

The Pick: Rams +3 @ 2 Units (Offered at Bovada)

Predicted Score: Rams 16 / Cardinals 9

Game: Packers +2.5 at NY Giants, O/U 50.5, 8:20pm on 11-25

Analysis: The Packers have won 5 straight but are still having issues finding a running game and protecting the QB.  Giants are well rested and sit 6-4 and tend to win the must-have games like this one, and can also pressure the QB well and exploit GB's beat-up D through the air and on the ground. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 71% of Public on Packers, but Line Up, so Sharp $ on Giants

Bet Trends: Packers are 10-2 ATS last 12 vs. winning record teams.  Giants are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 after a bye and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home.  Road Team is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and Underdog is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Giants -2.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Giants 27 / Packers 24

Game: Panthers -2.5 at Eagles, O/U 41, 8:30pm on 11-26

Analysis: Carolina has been on the wrong side of a lot of close games all season and the D is actually playing well, but the offense has been inconsistent.  Philly is facing injury concerns without Vick and McCoy and the O-Line is terrible, and the D is also having its share of issues. 

Line Movement: Line Off at Most Books

Bet Trends: Panthers are 6-2 ATS last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. losing record teams.  Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 on MNF, but 7-18-1 ATS last 26 home games and 3-13-1 ATS last 17 after an ATS loss.  Panthers are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Panthers -2.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Panthers 24 / Eagles 20