NFL Week 9 Picks

Game: Broncos -3.5/4 at Bengals, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: The Bengals are at home and coming off a bye, so right away seeing them as underdogs makes it an attractive play.  The public and media are way over-amped to the Broncos and fail to see that Manning will struggle outdoors when the weather gets colder.  AJ Green should be back to his normal self after some healing time and Gresham is a tough matchup for a Denver team that struggles against tight-ends.  Both teams have fairly strong pass rushes, but the key to the game will be a Bengals secondary that has depth and can contain the Denver passing game.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 80% of Public on Broncos with Sharps on Cincy Keeping Line Down

Bet Trends: Broncos are 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road.  Bengals are 4-9 ATS last 13 after a bye week and 3-10-3 ATS last 16 overall.  Road team is 4-1 ATS last 5 matchups between these teams.

The Pick: Bengals +4 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Bengals 31 / Broncos 27

Game: Cardinals +10 at Packers, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: Arizona has dropped 4 straight and who ever would have thought that Kevin Kolb was so valuable, but the team has also lost its tops 2 RB's.  The Defense is good enough to keep the team in games, so the wide spread does ask for a cover.  The Packers failed to cover at home last week as big favorites versus the lousy Jaguars.  The issue in this one is how will the Cardinals score any points with that offensive line matching up against Clay Matthews.  The Packers top WR's are banged up and could play a more conservative game with a win the only thing that matters.

Line Movement: Opened -11 with 78% Public Betting Packers and Small Smart $ on Arizona

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs. the NFC but 0-4-1 ATS last 5 overall.  Packers are 1-4 ATS last 5 home games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 matchups between these teams.

The Pick: Cardinals +10.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Packers 30 / Cardinals 20

Game: Dolphins -2 at Colts, O/U 43, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: Miami has won 3 straight and is a legit contender with a balanced offense and very good defense that this week faces a rookie QB.  The Colts are a surprising 4-3 and have won 3 of 4 and the Dolphin's starting rookie QB may be out due to injury this week, but Matt Moore is a reliable backup.  The Colts are -10 on turnover margin which will eventually catch-up with them, and Reggie Bush should get things going this week.

Line Movement: Opened -2 and Steady with 52% of Public Betting Colts

Bet Trends: Dolphins are 9-1 ATS last 10 vs. winning record teams and 9-2 ATS last 11 vs. AFC teams, also 13-4 ATS last 17 overall.  Colts are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games.  Miami is 6-0 ATS last 6 games in Indy. 

The Pick:  Dolphins -1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Miami 20 / Colts 16

Game: Ravens -3.5 at Browns, O/U 42.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: Baltimore is coming off a bye week and looks to rebound from a 43-13 thrashing by the Texans, and had some time to get new players filling in for the injured up to speed.  The Defense has been terrible, 30th versus the run and 24th against the pass and the offense has not utilized Ray Rice.  The Browns won an ugly one at home last week vs. the Chargers and have won 2 of 3, and lost 23-16 to Baltimore in week 4.  Weeden continues to grow at QB and Richardson is running the ball effectively, but they likely will not be able to keep up with the Ravens offense that should shred the Browns. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Bet Up to -4 at Some Books with 81% of Public Bets on Ravens 

Bet Trends: Ravens are 0-5 ATS last 5 overall but 5-2-1 ATS last 8 vs. AFC North teams.  Browns are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 in the division and 4-1 ATS last 5 at home.  Ravens are 4-0 ATS last 4 games in Cleveland and Road Team is 6-0 ATS last 6 matchups.

The Pick: Ravens -3.5@ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Ravens 37 / Browns 20

Game: Bills +10 at Texans, O/U 47.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: The Bills last road game against a quality team was a 45-3 loss to the 49ers.  Buffalo has talent on both sides of the ball, but makes far too many mistakes, but is coming off a bye week.  Houston is also coming off a bye week and responded to its first loss with a 43-13 win vs. Baltimore.  If Buffalo cannot get its ground game going against a stingy Texans D, they will be in for a long day. 

Line Movement: Opened -11 and 79% of Public Bets Texans

Bet Trends: Bills are 6-1 ATS last 7 after a bye week, but 5-11 ATS last 16 overall, and 3-7-1 ATS last 11 road games.  Texans are 15-4-2 ATS last 21 vs. the AFC and 10-1-1 ATS last 12 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in the game prior. 

The Pick: Houston -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Houston 41 / Buffalo 24

Game: Panthers +3.5 at Redskins, O/U 46.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: Carolina is 1-6 and probably the most disappointing team in the NFL with Newton having a rough sophomore slump, but the Redskins secondary is exploitable.  Carolina has lost its last 4 by a total of 12 points, so they stay in games but come up short.  Skins come in after losing 3 of 4 and teams look to have found some answers for RG3 who has not been the same since the concussion, but the Panthers D is not all that athletic to contain him this week.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 62% of Public Bets on Skins

Bet Trends: Panthers are 5-2 ATS last 7 road games.  Skins are 3-7 ATS last 10 home games and 9-25-3 ATS last 37 vs. teams with losing records.  Road Team is 7-2 ATS and Underdog is 8-1 ATS last 9 meetings between these teams.

The Pick: Panthers +3.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Panthers 27 / Redskins 28

Game: Lions -5 at Jaguars, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: At first look the Lions as a 5 point road favorite seems out of whack because although they have won 2 of the last 3, it is still a mistake prone team that lacks the ability to get up early in games.  The Jags are ranked near the bottom of the league is most statistical categories, but played well last week in a 9 point loss to the Packers.  Gabbert had a 300 yard passing game last week and Detroit lost Delmas in the secondary last weekend. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Bet to -5.5 with 79% of Public Heavy on Lions but Sharp Books Betting JAX

Bet Trends: Lions are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 road games.  Jaguars are 6-2 ATS last 8 following a loss, but 2-5 ATS last 7 home games.  The Favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Jags +5.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Lions 23 / Jaguars 19

Game: Bears -3.5 at Titans, O/U 43.5, 1pm on 11-4

Analysis: The 6-1 Bears have narrowly escaped with victories against the Lions and Panthers, two of the NFL's lesser teams and are on the downturn.  The passing game relies too heavily on Brandon Marshall.  The D is the top-ranked against the run.  Titans have won 2 of 3 but ranks 29th on D against the pass and 28th against the run, overall a tough matchup, but the team has played better with Hasselbeck at the helm. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 80% Public Bets Bears Yet Spread at -3.5 with Sharp $ Active in Tennessee

Bet Trends: Bears are 3-7 ATS last 10 after allowing 250+ passing yards but 10-4-1 ATS last 15 road games vs. teams with losing home records.  Titans are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 overall.  Road team is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Bears -3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bears 30 / Titans 20

Game: Vikings +4.5 at Seahawks, O/U 39.5, 4:05pm on 11-4

Analysis: The Vikings are 5-3 but have dropped 2 of 3 and looked terrible last Thursday Night and now have to go to a tough place to win.  Peterson leads the offense and Harvin is a game-changer in multiple aspects of the game.  The D is ranked in the middle of the league and has played well for the most part.  Seattle has lost two straight on the road and will be glad to be back home.  Seattle relies on its D and running the ball with Lynch.  These teams matchup well and likely comes down to a last second FG. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and Steady with 64% of Public Bets on Seattle

Bet Trends: Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 after allowing 30+ points.  Seahawks are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home and 12-4 ATS last 16 on turf. 

The Pick: Vikings +4.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Seahawks 20 / Vikings 16

Game: Bucs +1.5 at Raiders, O/U 46, 4:05pm on 11-4

Analysis: Tampa is coming off a big win last Thursday vs. the Vikings on the road and have a solid running game with a big play passing game, but on Defense rank 31st against the pass, but 6th against the run.  The Raiders have won 2 straight but still struggling to score TDs in the red zone and yet to get the running game going.  On Defense they may finally get 1 of their 2 starting CB's that have been injured back, and overall have played well on D lately.  Carson Palmer has been sharp and should have a strong game against a porous TB secondary. 

Line Movement: Opened -1.5 with 72% of Public Bets on Tampa but No Line Movement with Smart $ on Oakland

Bet Trends: Bucs are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall, but 2-7 ATS last 9 on grass and 1-4 ATS last 5 after a win.  Bucs are 14-6-1 ATS last 21 road games.  Raiders are 0-4 ATS last 4 after an ATS win and 18-39-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records.  Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Oakland -1.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Oakland 31 / Tampa Bay 27

Game: Steelers +3.5 at Giants, O/U 47.5, 4:25pm on 11-4

Analysis: The Steelers have won 3 of 4 and the D has looked much improved with the league's top ranked pass D set for a big challenge on the road this week, and due to the Hurricane the Steelers will be flying in for this game Sunday morning, a major disadvantage.  The Giants have been inconsistent at home and seem to only play one half all season, but still 6-2.  Wallace and Brown will give the Giants secondary more than it can handle.  The Giants only have 7 sacks this year and have allowed 21 but the league-high 24 takeaways has saved them all year long.    

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 51% Public on Steelers

Bet Trends: Steelers are 1-7 ATS last 8 road games and 5-17 ATS last 22 after a win of 14+ points.  Giants are 8-2-1 ATS last 11 after a win. 

The Pick: Steelers +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Steelers 27 / Giants 23

Game: Cowboys +3.5 at Falcons, O/U 47.5, 8:30pm on 11-4

Analysis: Dallas put together a strong 2nd half effort last week but came up just short and continues to struggle with turnovers and also injuries to its top RBs.  Atlanta is the league's only undefeated team at 7-0 but most of the games close lately.  The Falcons thrive in the passing game and also defensively against the pass. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and Bet Down to 3.5 with 52% Public on Falcons, so Signs of Some Sharp Action on Dallas

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 4-10 ATS last 14 overall and 2-8 ATS last 10 on turf.  Falcons are 18-7-1 ATS last 26 vs. losing record teams and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.  Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Atlanta -3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Atlanta 27 / Dallas 20

Game: Eagles +3.5 at Saints, O/U 52.5, 8:40pm on 11-5

Analysis: The Eagles need this game to get back to 500 and save their season.  The Saints lead the league in passing but rank near last defensively against the run and pass and should cure the Eagles offensive woes.    

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 51% of Public Bets on Eagles

Bet Trends: Eagles are 4-1 ATS last 5 on MNF, but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 overall.  Saints are 13-3 ATS last 16 home games and 10-3 ATS last 13 vs. the NFC.  Eagles are 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in New Orleans, and Road Team and Underdog are 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Eagles +3.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Eagles 34 / Saints 27