Thanksgiving Football Betting Picks/Previews

Game: Texans -3 at Lions, O/U 50, 12:30pm on 11-22

Analysis: The 9-1 Texans travel to Detroit on a short week and looked very beatable last week against a terrible Jaguars team, the Pass D exposed once again, similar to the Green Bay loss.  Houston's lack of depth looks like it may become a problem as the season progresses.  Detroit has the advantage of being home in a short week but has dropped 22 straight, but sports the league's top ranked passing offense.  The Lions have found secondary weapons with Broyles coming on, and Leshoure a surprise at RB adding balance.  The Lions have struggled with turnovers and stopping the run, a problem that the Texans will exploit. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 79% of Public Bets on Texans and Line Steady

Bet Trends: Texans are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games and 12-4-1 ATS following a win, also 15-5-2 ATS last 22 overall.  Lions are 5-11-1 ATS last 17 overall, 2-5 ATS last 7 at home, and 0-8 ATS last 8 Thursday games. 

The Pick: Houston -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Houston 27 / Detroit 23

Game: Redskins +3.5 at Cowboys, O/U 47.5, 4:15pm on 11-22

Analysis: RG3 gets the spotlight for a big divisional game that can put the Skins right back in the playoff hunt.  Washington has struggled stopping the pass, but has led an effective ground attack on offense and dismantled the Eagles 31-6 last week.  The Cowboys have won 2 straight in unimpressive fashion and rely heavily on the pass, a positive for this matchup, while the D has played well despite losing some key players.  Dez Bryant finally woke up last week and Austin/Witten provide Romo plenty of offensive weapons. 

Line Movement: Opened -4 and 55% of Public Bets on Redskins but Line Down to -3 so Sharp $ on Dallas

Bet Trends: Redskins are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. NFC East teams, but 1-3-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games.  Cowboys are 6-1 ATS last 7 Thursday games, but 5-12 ATS last 17 overall, and 2-12 ATS last 14 after a win, 0-7 ATS last 7 home games.  Redskins are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and 5-0 ATS last 5 in Dallas, and the underdog is 22-6 ATS last 28 meetings.

The Pick: Skins +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Redskins 27 / Dallas 24

Game: Patriots -7 at Jets, O/U 48.5, 8:20pm on 11-22

Analysis: The Patriots are coming off an impressive win and the offense is clicking, but lost Gronkowski to injury, though Hernandez expected to return, and the D remains susceptible to the pass.  The Jets snapped a 3 game slide last week, but have been inconsistent, mostly due to QB play.  NY does not have a lot of playmakers to threaten the Pats D, and Brady should be able to let the Pats pull away in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -7 with 83% of Public on New England and Line Steady with Some Sharp $ on NYJ

Bet Trends: Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 53-25-3 ATS last 81 road games.  Jets are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. AFC teams.  Pats are 11-2 ATS last 13 meetings in NY and road team is 20-8-1 ATS last 29 meetings. 

The Pick: Pats -7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Pats 38 / Jets 20