Thursday/Friday NCAA Football Preview/Picks

Game: Louisville +3 at Rutgers, O/U 43.5, 7:30pm on 11-29

Analysis: Louisville comes in on a 2 game slide after starting 9-0 and star QB Bridgewater is playing with a broken wrist on his non-throwing hand which impacts the types of plays that can be run.  Rutgers suffered their worst defeat of the season last week 27-6 to Pitt and continues to struggle on offense, but the defense is ranked among the Top 10 in the country.  Rutgers has a fairly good rushing attack with Jamison and the Cardinals have allowed 6 RB's to surpass the century mark this season.  Rutgers is in search of its first BCS bowl and Big East Championship. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 62% of Public Bets on Rutgers

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 road games.  Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall.  Favorite is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and home team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings. 

The Pick: Rutgers -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Rutgers 20 / Louisville 14

Game: Northern Illinois -6.5 vs. Kent St, O/U 58, 7pm on 11-30

Analysis: Two MAC teams come in ranked and set to battle it out for the championship, both at 11-1 and should be a fun game to watch.  After starting the season with a 1 point loss to Iowa the Huskies have ripped off 11 straight wins scoring 40 points/game and allowing just 17.5/game.  NIU is a ground attack team averaging 245 yards/game and the QB has 2,750 yards passing and 1,600 rushing.  Kent St. also averages 240 yards a game on the ground and has two rushers over 1000 yards this season.  Kent St. put up 35 on a stingy Rutgers D, so has no problems scoring.  Kent St. also has a +20 turnover ratio and is led by Dri Archer in rushing and receiving, but has been bothered by an ankle injury, and does it all including 3 kick return TDs.  The winner of this game could get a BCS bid.

Line Movement: Opened -5 and Pushed Higher with 55% Public on Northern Illinois Along with Some Sharp $

Bet Trends: Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS last 9 overall and 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in the MAC, but 3-8 ATS last 11 at Neutral Sites.  Golden Flashes are 14-2 ATS last 16 games on turf and 14-3 ATS last 17 overall.  Huskies are 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings and the Favorite is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings. 

The Pick: Northern Illinois -6.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Northern Illinois 38 / Kent St. 31

Game: UCLA +7.5 at Stanford, O/U 43.5, 8pm on 11/30

Analysis: A rematch of last week with Stanford winning easily 35-17 in UCLA, so unusual to see the Smart $ take the Bruins in this one and push this line lower.  UCLA's offense is usually great, but Stanford has proven to have an elite front-7 as Oregon found out.  Hogan has looked good at QB for Stanford and Taylor is a tough RB, and overall Stanford a much more physical team.  UCLA however has much more to play for this week, so we should see a better effort and likely why the double-digit spread was bet down, and even some feeling UCLA lost on purpose to avoid Oregon in this game. 

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 60% Public Bets Stanford but Line Down to 7.5 do Sharp $ on UCLA

Bet Trends: Bruins are 6-1 ATS last 7 after an ATS loss, but 5-12 ATS last 17 road games.  Cardinals are 17-5-1 ATS last 23 Pac 12 games and 23-10 ATS last 33 at home.  Favorite is 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and Home Team is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings with Bruins 1-6 ATS last 7 visits to Stanford.

The Pick: UCLA +7.5 @ 1 Unit (The +10.5 was a Much Better Get)

Predicted Score: Stanford 24 / UCLA 21