Thursday, November 15, 2012

Week 10 Thursday Night NFL Preview and Pick


Game: Dolphins +1.5 at Bills, O/U 45.5, 8:20pm on 11/15

Analysis: Miami coming off a terrible loss to the Titans 37-3 with a bunch of turnovers, and really not utilizing Reggie Bush properly.  The Defense ranks 28th against the pass allowing 278 yards per game.  Buffalo has dropped 3 straight and 5 of 6, but played well vs. both the Pats and Texans and have the 6th best rushing attack with Spiller/Jackson combo.  Buffalo's D has been the problem, 32nd against the run.  Although the Dolphins have the betting trends advantage, the Bills are playing football and being at home should benefit them in a close game on a short week.

Line Movement: Opened -1 and 65% of Public on Buffalo Moved to -2.5 at Some Books

Bet Trends: Dolphins are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC East teams and 8-2 ATS after a loss.  Miami is 19-7-1 ATS on the road and 13-6 ATS last 19 overall.  Bills are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-8-1 ATS last 10 after an ATS win.  Dolphins are 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick: Buffalo -1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Buffalo 27 / Miami 20

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