Game: Dolphins
+1.5 at Bills, O/U 45.5, 8:20pm on 11/15
Analysis: Miami coming off a terrible loss to the
Titans 37-3 with a bunch of turnovers, and really not utilizing Reggie Bush
properly. The Defense ranks 28th against
the pass allowing 278 yards per game.
Buffalo has dropped 3 straight and 5 of 6, but played well vs. both the
Pats and Texans and have the 6th best rushing attack with Spiller/Jackson
combo. Buffalo's D has been the problem,
32nd against the run. Although the
Dolphins have the betting trends advantage, the Bills are playing football and
being at home should benefit them in a close game on a short week.
Line Movement: Opened
-1 and 65% of Public on Buffalo Moved to -2.5 at Some Books
Bet Trends: Dolphins
are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. AFC East teams and 8-2 ATS after a loss. Miami is 19-7-1 ATS on the road and 13-6 ATS
last 19 overall. Bills are 2-5 ATS last
7 at home and 1-8-1 ATS last 10 after an ATS win. Dolphins are 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings.
The Pick: Buffalo
-1 @ 2 Units
Predicted Score: Buffalo 27 / Miami 20
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