Week 12 College Football Preview and Picks

Game: Oklahoma -5.5 @ TCU, O/U 60, 12pm on 12-1

Analysis: Oklahoma has survived with narrow wins against Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma St the last 3 weeks, finding ways to win but the D has been allowing a lot of points.  TCU lost to OK St. 36-14 a few weeks ago and has lost 3 of 5.  TCU leads the Big 12 with 20 interceptions and Landry Jones has struggled with turnovers at times.  TCU needs to use its ground game to control the clock and keep Jones off the field with all the Sooners offensive weapons.  Boykin has played well at QB for TCU and although the team has been inconsistent this is a week where a lot is on the line.

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 71% of Public on Oklahoma, but Line Down to -5.5 Shows Sharp $ on TCU

Bet Trends:  Sooners are 13-6 ATS after an ATS loss, but 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  TCU is 3-13 ATS last 16 after an ATS win and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs. teams with winning road records. 

The Pick: TCU +6 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Oklahoma 31 / TCU 27

Game: Oklahoma St. -5 at Baylor, O/U 87, 12pm on 12-1

Analysis: The Cowboys have been playing great football winning 5 of the last 7 with losses to Kansas St and Oklahoma, both on the road.  This is set to be a shoot-out with the Over-Under at 87.  Baylor pulled off the shocker vs. Kansas St and has won 3 of 4 with the offense scoring 44.4/game this season but the D allowing 38.5/game.  Florence has stepped it up at QB and Williams is one of the best WRs in the country.  The teams are fairly evenly matched and Baylor has momentum and home-field advantage, so have to take the underdog. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 71% of Public on Oklahoma St so Sharp $ Holding Line Steady

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road.  Bears are 11-2 ATS last 13 home games.  Cowboys are 13-3 ATS last 16 meetings, Favorite is 13-3 ATS, and Home Team is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Baylor +5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Baylor 52 / Oklahoma St 48

Game: Middle Tennessee St. +10 at Arkansas St., O/U 62.5, 3pm on 12-1

Analysis: The Sun Belt Championship features two 8-3 teams.  Middle Tennessee is not flashy and a fairly balanced team that upset G-Tech earlier this year.  Arkansas St. lost 26-13 to a Western Kentucky team that Middle Tennessee beat 34-29.  Arkansas St. is an up and coming team with a lot more talent and should be able to handle business in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 60% of Public on Arkansas St, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games, but 2-6 ATS vs. winning record teams in the last 8.  Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall and 16-5 ATS last 21 after a game in which it surpassed 450 yards of offense.  Favorite is 8-1 ATS last 9 meetings and Home Team is 4-1 ATS last 5. 

The Pick: Arkansas St -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Arkansas St 45 / Middle Tennessee 24

Game: Boise St -8.5 at Nevada, O/U 59, 3:30pm on 12-1

Analysis: The 9-2 Broncos comes in with the 5th ranked D allowing just 14.4 points/game, and really have not played any quality teams this year other than the 20-10 win vs. Fresno St.  Nevada is 7-4 and has dropped 3 of 4 including a 52-36 loss to Fresno St, and each of these teams lost to San Diego St. in close games.  Nevada average 263 yards/game rushing with dual threat QB Fajardo and Jefferson at RB, but the Wolfpack's D has been lousy allowing 33 points/game.  Nevada's Pistol Offense will be a big test for the Broncos D, but they have history with Nevada and shut them down last year.

Line Movement: Opened -8.5 and 66% of Public Bets on Boise St, but Small Sharp Interest in Nevada

Bet Trends: Broncos are 23-7 ATS last 30 road games, but 3-10 ATS last 13 conference games and 4-10 ATS after a win.  Wolf Pack are 3-14-1 ATS last 18 overall and 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  Broncos are 4-1 ATS last 5 in Nevada and Road Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings.

The Pick: Boise St -8.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Boise St 31 / Nevada 20

Game: Pitt -7 at South Florida, O/U 46, 7pm on 12-1

Analysis: Pitt is 5-6 and has shown flashes all season, a dominating win vs. Rutgers last week 27-6 and deserved to knock off Notre Dame 3 weeks ago if not for some terrible calls.  Pitt is a team that will be dangerous next season.  South Florida is 3-8 and has dropped 8 of 9 but beat a UCONN team that beat Pitt and has been in a lot of tight games. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 71% of Public Bets on Pitt and Also Some True Steam

Bet Trends: Panthers are 9-2-2 ATS last 13 vs. losing record teams and 20-8-1 ATS in the Big East.  Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 overall and 6-19-1 ATS in the Big East, also 3-12-1 ATS at home.  Panthers are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Pitt -6.5 @ 3 Units (Offered at CRIS)

Predicted Score: Pitt 30 / South Florida 17

Game: Texas +11.5 at Kansas St., O/U 63, 8pm on 12-1

Analysis: Texas has not been all that impressive this year and the best team they played was Oklahoma, who they lost at home 63-21, but did beat Baylor 56-50.  K-St is coming off of its first lost in which the D let them down, but was an over-rated team all season long that easily could have lost a few games (OK St, OK, and Iowa St).  Texas will try to attack on the ground after the Wildcats gave up 340 rushing yards to Baylor and Texas has plenty of options at RB.  Texas is 8-0 when rushing for 136+ yards.  After losing National Championship hopes, K-St could suffer another let down this week.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and 73% Public Bets on K-St with Small Sharp $ on Texas

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall.  Wildcats are 17-5-1 ATS last 23 overall, but 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games in December.  Road Team is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings and Underdog is 7-0 ATS. 

The Pick: Texas +11.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Kansas St. 31 / Texas 27

Game: Nebraska -3 at Wisconsin, O/U 49, 8:15pm on 12-1

Analysis: Nebraska is 10-2 and has won 6 straight and beat Wisconsin 30-27 earlier this year, but at home.  Taylor Martinez is the key to the team, and has had some off games with turnovers.  Badgers have lost 3 of 4 but each game close and all in Overtime.  Montee Ball has been great as of late and Stave much better at QB.  It figures to be another close game and in the Big 10 worth taking the underdog.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with 64% of Public on Nebraska but Small Sharp $ on Wisconsin

Bet Trends: Cornhuskers are 3-8 ATS after allowing 20 points in the prior game, but 3-1-1 ATS last 5 Big 10 games.  Badgers are 2-5 ATS after an ATS loss. 

The Pick: Wisconsin +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Nebraska 28 / Wisconsin 27