Week 12 Thursday Night NFL Preview and Pick

Game: Saints +3/3.5 at Falcons, O/U 56, 8:20pm on 11/29

Analysis: Saints have won 5 of 7 including a 31-27 home win vs. the Falcons on 11-11, but last week lost to the 49ers, a very hot team playing great defense.  The offense has shown more balance and Ivory is running well, and Sproles being back is a big boost, but need to check the status of Colston for this game who was knocked out last week.  The defense has been playing better of late with the D-Line getting a strong pass rush.  Falcons come in 10-1 and looking to avenge the only loss, but have struggled to beat bad teams the last few weeks and not looking all that impressive, but still finding ways to win.  Matt Ryan is already becoming one of the best comeback QB's in the league, but the D has struggled to stop the run.  Jimmy Graham dominated the Falcons in the prior matchup and should be the D's focus in this one, and the return of Witherspoon is very key to the Falcons D.  The Saints have owned the Falcons, so expect a 100% effort out of Atlanta to prove they are the class of the NFC, and being at home for the short week should help, and a win could keep the Saints out of the playoffs.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 60% of Public Bets on Saints, Line Steady

Bet Trends: Saints are 6-1 ATS last 7 divisional games, but 1-3-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games.  Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 Thursday games and 23-9-2 ATS last 34 following an ATS loss.  Saints are 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings and the underdog is 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Falcons -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Falcons 34 / Saints 27