College Football Bowl Picks and Previews

Game: San Jose St. -7 vs. Bowling Green, Military Bowl, 12-27-12 at 3pm

Analysis: San Jose St. comes in winning 6 straight and ranked 11th in the Nation in passing offense.  Bowling Green as the 8th ranked defense allowing just 15.8 points/game.  Both of these teams started the year with losses, but to quality teams, Stanford and Florida respectively, and held up well vs. the better competition.  San Jose St. will be traveling clear across the country and has a passing team the weather could play a factor in D.C.  SJ St's coach was hired by Colorado, so still unclear if he coaches this Bowl Game.  Too many uncertainties for SJ St. and Bowling Green has the 7th ranked pass D, although played a weak schedule, lean to the underdog cover.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and Steady with 64% of Public Bets on SJ St.

Bet Trends: Spartans are 20-6 ATS last 26 overall and 10-1 ATS last 11 Non. Conf. games.  Falcons are 7-1 ATS last 8 overall, but 4-11-1 ATS last 16 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Bowling Green +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: SJ St. 24 / Bowling Green 20

Game: Duke +7 vs. Cincinnati, Belk Bowl, 12-27 at 6:30pm

Analysis: Duke comes in losing 4 straight, although to teams like Clemson, Miami, and FSU.  Renfree leads the passing attack and has had a solid year.  Bearcats won 4 of its last 5 and is a team with the 12th ranked D and also Winn providing a strong ground attack, but faced a lot of injuries late in the season.  Cincy will have an interim coach for this game.  Duke gave up 290+ yards/game on the ground in its last 4 games, a concern into this one.  Duke's passing attack features 3 WR's that caught 60+ balls this season. 

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 61% of Public Bets on Cincinnati so Strong Sharp $ Action on Duke with Line Down to 7

Bet Trends: Bearcats are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl Games.  Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS last 6 Non. Conf. games, but 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.

The Pick: Duke +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Duke 27 / Cincinnati 23

Game: Baylor +1 vs. UCLA, Holiday Bowl, 12-27 at 9:45pm

Analysis: This is going to be a fun one, could see 100 points scored.  Baylor won 3 straight to close the year with big wins vs. K-St and OK St and features the 3rd ranked passing offense and 18th ranked rushing offense.  UCLA coming off back to back losses to Stanford, but has a balanced team all dependant how QB Hundley plays, while Franklin at RB is elite.  Baylor is near last in the Nation on D and averages only 1 sack a game, so UCLA should be able to keep pace.  Bears are 15-2 when causing 2 or more turnovers, so that will be critical.  UCLA's Barr is the leader in the country in sacks and should be able to pressure Florence. 

Line Movement: Opened -1 and Steady with 54% of Public on UCLA

Bet Trends: Bears are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall.  Bruins are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Baylor +1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Baylor 52 / UCLA 49

Game: Ohio +7 vs. LA-Monroe, Independence Bowl, 12-28 at 2pm

Analysis: The Bobcats lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 to close the season and the offense was shaky at best.  The Warhakws started the season wit a signature win vs. Arkansas and almost upset Baylor and Auburn as well, plenty of talent on this team with QB Browning leading passing and rushing.  Brent Leonard has 97 catches for the Warhawks. 

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 69% of Public Bets LA-Monroe

Bet Trends:  Bobcats are 15-7 ATS last 22 vs. winning record teams, but 1-7 ATS last 8 overall. Warhawks are 0-4 ATS last 4 vs. MAC team, but 9-4 ATS last 13 overall.

The Pick:  UL-Monroe -7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: UL-Monroe 38 / Ohio 23

Game: Rutgers +3 vs. Virginia Tech, Russell Athletic Bowl, 12-28 at 5:30pm

Analysis: Rutgers closed the season in a disappointing note with 2 losses and lost the Big East title after a great start and the 5th ranked D allowing just 14 points/game while Jamison key to the ground game.  V-Tech's entire season was disappointing but did win 2 to close the year.  Rutgers has Khaseem Greene, one of the better LB's in the country who will be set on stopping Logan Thomas from scrambling.  Nova at QB for Rutgers has been a concern with interceptions and needs to make better decisions.  The Hokies held FSU to -15 yards rushing on 25 carries which could make it tough for Rutgers to move the ball. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 63% of Public Bets Rutgers but Line Up to 2.5/3 so Sharp $ on V-Tech

Bet Trends:  Scarlet Knights are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 Bowl Games and 7-3 ATS last 10 overall.  Hokies are 7-19-1 ATS last 27 overall and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 Non. Conf. games.

The Pick:  V-Tech -2.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: V-Tech 20 / Rutgers 16

Game: Minnesota +13 vs. Texas Tech, Car Care Bowl, 12-28 at 9pm

Analysis:  Minnesota at 6-6 one of the weaker teams in a Bowl game and the spread shows that, and lost by 20+ to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the Big 10.  Texas Tech has the 2nd ranked passing offense at 362 yards/game and the D is much improved this year.  Doege is as smart and accurate as any QB in college football and should lead the team to an easy win.  Texas Tech will have an interim coach after Tubberville abandoned the team, one concern.  Minnesota will attempt a ground-control game to keep Texas Tech off the field. 

Line Movement: Opened -12.5 and 82% of Public Bets Texas Tech, One-Sided

Bet Trends:  Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS last 5 Non. Conf. games and 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS last 5 Non. Conf games, but 2-8 ATS last 10 Neutral-Site games and 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl Games.

The Pick: Texas Tech -13 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texas Tech 37 / Minnesota 20

Game: Rice +2 vs. Air Force, Armed Forces Bowl, 12-2 at 11:45am

Analysis:  A matchup of two 6-6 teams with Rice winning 4 straight to close the year and averaging 200 yards/game rushing with a balanced attack.  Air Force lost 3 of its last 4 and averages 328 yards/game on the ground, so should be a grind it out type game.  In a close matchup you have to go with the team with momentum.

Line Movement: Opened a Pick-Em and 70% Of Bets on Air Force

Bet Trends: Owls are 13-2-1 ATS last 16 after a game of 200+ rushing yards.  Falcons are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs. Conf. USA. 

The Pick: Rice +2 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Rice 34 / Air Force 27

Game: West Virginia -3.5 vs. Syracuse, New Era Pinstripe Bowl, 12-29 at 3:15pm

Analysis: WVU snapped a 5 game skid with late season wins vs Iowa St and Kansas, not exactly elite competition and the D can't stop anyone and terrible at tackling.  Syracuse is an under-appreciated team with a strong passing game that should move the ball with ease and won 3 straight to close the year. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 78% of Public Bets West Virginia but Line Steady with Sharp $ on Syracuse

Bet Trends: Mountaineers are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs. Big East teams, but 3-7 ATS last 10 vs. winning record teams.  Orange are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall.  WVU is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings vs. Syracuse, but Underdog is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Syracuse +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Syracuse 41 / West Virginia 37

Game: Navy +14.5 vs. Arizona St., Fight Hunger Bowl, 12-29 at 4pm

Analysis: An interesting matchup with Navy's rushing attack coming in at 275 yards/game and a fairly stout D, but this will be a higher level of competition and Navy lost by 40 to Notre Dame and 27 to Penn State, but did hold San Jose St. to 12 points.  ASU puts up points with Kelly at QB and likely has too much offense for Navy.  ASU matches up well on offense with Navy allowing 300+ passing yards in two of its last 3 games, while Navy's rushing offense should also have some success against an ASU D that allowed 4 of its last 6 to run for 200+. 

Line Movement: Opened -14.5 and 51% of Public Bets Navy, Steady Line

Bet Trends:  Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS last 7 Bowl Games.  Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl Games.

The Pick: Navy +14.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: ASU 31 / Navy 24

Game: Texas +2 vs. Oregon St., Alamo Bowl, 12-29 at 6:45pm

Analysis: Texas has been on and off all year, plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but the D has struggled in tackling and the QB position has struggled on offense.  This sets up to be one of the better back and forth games.  The Beavers started the season real hot and cooled later in the season, but losses came vs. quality teams.  Texas will have a strong home field-advantage in this one.  Oregon State's ball hawking D should allow them to win this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -1 and 76% of Public Bets on Oregon St

Bet Trends: Longhorns are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Pac 12 teams, but 2-6 ATS last 8 overall and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 Neutral-Site games.  Beavers are 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs. winning record teams. 

The Pick: Oregon St -2 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Oregon St 27 / Texas 23

Game: TCU -2.5 vs. Michigan St., Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 12-29 at 10:15pm

Analysis: TCU lost 4 of its last 6 but I liked how Boykin played at QB and can pull out any game.  TCU is war-tested after a brutal late season schedule and the long rest will help.  Michigan St. relied on Defense with a very good front 7, but the QB Mawell has been shaky, although improved late in the season and Levian Bell is a beast at RB.  TCU's D was pretty solid against the Big 12 opponents, so against the Big 10 it should really thrive. 

Line Movement: Opened -2 and 76% of Public Bets on TCU, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Horned Frogs are 10-1 ATS last 11 after a loss, but 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl Games.  Spartans are 3-7 ATS last 10 overall an 1-5 ATS last 6 games vs. Big 12 teams.

The Pick:  TCU -2.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: TCU 24 / Michigan St. 13

Game: NC St. +7 vs. Vanderbilt, Music City Bowl, 12-31 at 12pm

Analysis: NC St. may have the most NFL-ready QB in the country with Glennon and as long as they don't get too far down early they can stay in any shootout.  Vandy is coming in hot with 6 straight wins with Stacy at RB and Matthews an explosive threat at WR.  NC St. will be playing this game with an interim coach.  Vandy is in the Top 10 on passing D and provides a difficult test, and have to go with the hot team.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 72% of Public Bets Vanderbilt, Line Up to 7/7.5

Bet Trends: Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 Bowl Games and 7-3-1 ATS last 11 vs. winning record teams.  Commodores are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall and 6-2 ATS last 8 Non. Conf. games.

The Pick: Vandy -7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Vandy 31 / NC St. 21

Game: USC -9.5 vs. Georgia Tech, Sun Bowl, 12-31 at 2pm

Analysis: The major advantage here is USC has weeks to prepare for G-Tech's triple-option.  USC has lost 4 of 5 and despite all the talent, does not play with enough fire, likely that is the on the coaching.  G-Tech is 6-7 and closed the season with losses to Georgia and FSU.  The Yellow Jackets have a lot of game-changers on the offensive side of the ball, but the D is mismatched against USC's WR's, although USC's defense has had plenty of struggles. 

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 72% of Public Bets USC but Line Steady and down to 9.5 at Some Books

Bet Trends: Trojans are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl Games and 17-8 ATS after a loss, but 2-5 ATS last 7 Non. Conf games.  Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS last 5 Bowl games.

The Pick: USC -9.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: USC 45 / G-Tech 31

Game: Iowa St. -1 vs. Tulsa, Liberty Bowl, 12-31 at 3:30pm

Analysis: The 6-6 Cyclones matchup with a  10-3 Tulsa team in a Big vs. Small Conf. game.  Iowa St has hung in against top tier opponents but lost its star LB (Knott) to injury late in the season.  Tulsa is a run-heavy squad but and did beat a very good Fresno St team early this season.  This is a rematch with Iowa St opening the season a 38-23 victor. 

Line Movement: Opened -1 and 55% of Public Bets Iowa St

Bet Trends: Cyclones are 1-4 ATS last 5 Neutral Site games and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 vs. winning record teams.  Golden Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS last 5 Non Conf. games and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 vs. Big 12 teams.

The Pick: Iowa St -1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Iowa St. 34 / Tulsa 27

Game: LSU -4.5 vs. Clemson, Chick-fil-A Bowl, 12-31 at 7:30am

Analysis:  LSU started the year slow but impressive winning 5 of its last 6 and nearly knocked off Alabama.  Clemson finished the season with a 10 point loss to South Carolina and only scored 17 showing these SEC defenses can contain its explosive offense.  This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense.  LSU s a much more physical team and Clemson's struggles vs South Carolina make me lean to LSU in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Pushed Up to 4.5 with 79% of Public Bets on LSU

Bet Trends: LSU is 5-2 ATS last 7 Bowl Games and 7-3-2 ATS last 12 Neutral Site.  Clemson is 7-2 ATS last 9 overall, but 1-6 ATS last 7 Bowl Games.

The Pick: LSU -4.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: LSU 31 / Clemson 23

Game: Miss. St. -1.5 vs. Northwestern, Gator Bowl, 1-1 at 12pm

Analysis: The Bulldogs lost 4 of 5 into Bowl season and a team that looked great early really lost its way.  Plenty of offensive talent, but the D allowed 37+ the last 5 games.  Northwestern comes in with the 14th ranked rushing attack and an under-rated team overall.  Wildcats have lost 9 straight bowl games and will look to break that streak.  Miss. St has some injuries of concern into this one including the QB.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 65% of Public Bets Northwestern has Line Down to 1.5/2

Bet Trends: Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS last 16 on grass, but 2-5 ATS last 7 Non. Conf. games.  Wildcats are 4-0 ATS last 4 Non. Conf. games and 11-1 ATS last 12 overall. 

The Pick: Northwestern +1.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Northwestern 31 / Miss. St. 27

Game: Purdue +16.5 vs. Oklahoma St., Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1-1 at 12pm

Analysis: Purdue was 6-6 in the Big 10 and OK St 7-5 in the Big 12, so clearly a mismatch as the 16.5 spread dictates.  Purdue won 3 straight however, but has not faced an offense like the Cowboys.  OK St lost 2 to end the season and continues to struggle on Defense, but plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Purdue allowed 400 yards/game in the Big 10, so D is a big problem. 

Line Movement: Opened -17 and 80% of Public Bets OK St., but Line Down to 16.5 Some Books Show Sharp $ on Purdue

Bet Trends: Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS last 5 Non. Conf. games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl Games.  Cowboys are 9-1 ATS last 10 after an ATS loss and 13-5 ATS last 18 on turf.

The Pick: Oklahoma St -16.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oklahoma St. 55 / Purdue 27

Game: South Carolina -6 vs. Michigan, Outback Bowl, 1-1 at 1pm

Analysis: South Carolina comes in at 10-2 with losses to LSU and Florida on the road.  The Defense held Clemson to 17 in the last game and the offense has had its struggles without Lattimore.  Michigan played better down the stretch despite inconsistent QB play.  Clowney is one of the most athletic defensive lineman to ever play college football and should be able to keep Robinson contained.  SOuth Carolina's QB Shaw should be back from a foot injury to play this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 79% of Public Bets South Carolina with True Steam, Large Line Mover

Bet Trends: Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS last 6 Non. Conf. games and 10-3 ATS last 13 on grass, but 1-5 ATS last 6 Neutral Site games.  Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS last 5 Bowl Games.

The Pick: South Carolina -6 @ 1 Unit (Would Bet More Units if Had Original Line)

Predicted Score: South Carolina 31 / Michigan 20

Game: Georgia -10 vs. Nebraska, Capital One Cowl, 1-1 at 1pm

Analysis: The 10-2 Bulldogs nearly pulled off the upset of Alabama to close the season but came up short.  Georgia is stacked on offense with Murray, Gurley and King and the Defense is as good as any in the country.  Nebraska just let up 70 to Wisconsin and the rushing attack could struggle against Georgia, and Martinez a history of turnover problems.  Alabama did shred Georgia's D for 350 rushing yards however. 

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and 83% of Public Bets Georgia (Squares?)

Bet Trends: Cornhuskers are 6-2 ATS last 8 after allowing 40 points in prior game.  Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS last 5 Non. Conf games but 5-1 ATS last 6 overall.

The Pick: Nebraska +10 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Georgia 37 / Nebraska 31

Game: Wisconsin +7 vs. Stanford, Rose Bowl, 1-1 at 5pm

Analysis: Wisconsin coming off a 70-31 win but will face a Stanford team with a top tier front 7 that could give Montee Ball a fit.  Stanford is hot winning 7 straight and actually beat Notre Dame if not for a poorly called game.  Barry Alvarez will be coaching this game for Wisconsin and a tough task at hand.  Both teams are accustomed to playing in close games this year and likely another one this week.

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 68% of Public Bets Stanford, Line Up to 6.5/7

Bet Trends: Badgers are 0-5 ATS last 5 Non Conf. games and 4-9 ATS last 13 after a win.  Cardinals are 10-1 ATS last 11 Non Conf. games and 19-6-1 ATS last 26 on grass.

The Pick:  Wisconsin +7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Stanford 27 / Wisconsin 24

Game: Northern Illinois +13 vs. Florida St., Orange Bowl, 1-1 at 8:30pm

Analysis:  Northern Illinois is a big game with a lot of controversy will look to prove they belong and at 12-1 earning their way here and Lynch is a dual threat QB that can carry this team.  FSU struggled later in the season and could be caught off-guard in this one.  FSU will be without its defensive coordinator as well who left for the Kentucky job.

Line Movement: Opened -15 and 64% of Public Bets FSU, but Line Down to 13 so Sharp $ on Northern Illinois

Bet Trends: Huskies are 7-1-2 ATS last 10 overall and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. ACC teams, but 1-6 ATS last 7 on grass.  Seminoles are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 Bowl Games and 10-2-1 ATS last 13 Neutral Site games, but 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Northern Illinois +13 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: FSU 34 / Northern Illinois 27

Game: Louisville +13.5 vs. Florida, Sugar Bowl, 1-2 at 8:30pm

Analysis: Louisville lost 2 of 3 to close the season but managed to squeak into the Sugar Bowl, and the odds-makers disrespecting the Big-East.  Gators are 11-1 with the only loss being to Georgia, but have not exactly been dominate in efforts.  The month rest will get Bridgewater back healthy for the Cardinals and should be the difference maker to keep this game close.

Line Movement: Opened -13.5 and 68% of Public Bets Florida, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 35-17 ATS last 52 Non Conf. games and 0-5 ATS after an ATS win.  Gators are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl Games and 22-9 ATS last 31 Non Conf games. 

The Pick: Louisville +13.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Florida 27 / Louisville 21

Game: Oregon -9.5 vs. Kansas St, Fiesta Bowl, 1-3 at 8:30pm

Analysis: Oregon comes in 11-1 and has to be disappointed not being in the title game, but the month off could help K-St prepare for the up-tempo offense.  K-St struggled to stop Baylor who put up 52 on them so Oregon should give them major problems, and offensively the Wildcats have very little threats.  Oregon will be looking to send Chip Kelly off on a good note as he likely takes a NFL job next year. 

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 66% of Public Bets Oregon, Line Up to 9.5

Bet Trends: Ducks are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, but 2-5 ATS last 7 Non. Conf. games.  Wildcats are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl Games and 10-21 ATS last 31 Non Conf. games.

The Pick: Oregon -9.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Oregon 56 / Kansas St. 45     

Game: Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma, Cotton Bowl, 1-4 at 8pm

Analysis: Texas A&M comes in with Heisman winner Johnny-Football at QB and has won 5 straight.  Oklahoma has won 5 straight as well and been in some very tight games.  A&M has not faces a lot of elite offenses this year and the D could struggle, while Oklahoma's D will definitely struggle, so should be a high scoring affair.  This is a real tough one to call, but A&M will look to get back at its former rival that previously owned them and should pull away.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and 61% of Public Bets A&M, Line Up to 4.5/5

Bet Trends: Aggies are 1-5 ATS last 6 Bowl Games and 1-9 ATS last 10 Neutral Site games.  Sooners are 6-2 ATS last 8 Non Conf. games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 games in January.  Aggies are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick:  A&M -4.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: A&M 48 / Oklahoma 38

Game: Pitt +3.5 vs. Ole Miss, Compass Bowl, 1-5 at 1pm

Analysis: Pitt has improved as the season went along and should have beaten Notre Dame if not for some terrible calls, and now they are in the Championship Game.  Ole Miss has plenty of offensive weapons with Wallace, Scott and Moncrief and the team speed could give Pitt issues.  Ole Miss played LSU, Vandy and Georgia well down the stretch and should come out with a strong performance.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 69% of Public Bets on Miss. with Line Up to 3.5/4

Bet Trends: Panthers are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall.  Rebels are 14-4 ATS last 18 Non Conf. games and 7-2 ATS last 9 overall.

The Pick: Ole Miss -3.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Ole Miss 31 / Pitt 24

Game: Kent St. +4 vs. Arkansas St., GoDaddy.com Bowl, 1-6 at 9pm

Analysis: Arkansas St won 7 straight to finish the season including wins vs Bowl teams LA-Lafayette and UL-Monroe.  Kent St. has some quality wins this year vs. Rutgers and Bowling Green, and both teams rely on the running games.  It should be an even matched game, but Arkansas St. will have an interim coach while Kent St's coach was also poached but will stick around to coach this game.  Arkansas St. has the better QB that should make the difference in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 60% of Public on Kent St, but Line Up to 4 Shows True Sharp $ on Ark. St

Bet Trends:  Golden Flashes are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 overall, but 5-13 ATS last 18 Non Conf. games.  Red Wolves are 5-0 ATS last 5 overall. 

The Pick: Arkansas St. -4 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Arkansas St 38 / Kent St. 31

Game: Notre Dame +9.5 vs. Alabama, Discover National Championship, 1-7 at 8:30pm

Analysis: Notre Dame is 12-0 but needed overtimes vs. Stanford and Pitt, and also required a bunch of officiating help to pull those out.  The D is the best in the country and it has faced some quality opponents, but not on the SEC level, and the offense struggled all season.  Alabama lost some momentum late in the year but Saban will have his team healthy and hungry in this one.   Expect Alabama to pound the rock and beat Notre Dame on play-action, and completely shut down the Irish on offense.

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 67% of Public Bets Notre Dame but Line to 10/10.5 Shows Sharp $ on 'Bama

Bet Trends: Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl Games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. winning record teams and 1-4 ATS last 5 Non Conf. games.  Fighting Irish are ATS last 5 Neutral Site games and 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Alabama -9.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Alabama 31 / Notre Dame 13