College Football Bowl Preview (Part 1 - 8 Games)

Game: Nevada +10 at Arizona, O/U 75, New Mexico Bowl 12-15 at 1pm

Analysis: Nevada finished the season with a 6 point loss to Boise St. and is the 8th ranked rushing attack in the country at 247.5 yards/game.  Arizona has the same 7-5 record and lost its final game by 7 to ASU, and has quality wins vs. USC and Oklahoma St. this season, and close losses to Stanford and Oregon St with the 3rd ranked passing offense at 371 yards/game, but does allow 35.4 points/game.  Nevada was 0-4 this season against winning record teams.  Arizona is the superior team here and should be able to move the ball on offense through the air, and a few stops on D will make this a run-away.

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 69% of Public Bets Arizona

Bet Trends: Wolf Pack are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 Non-Conf. games, 1-7 ATS last 8 overall, and 0-4-1 ATS last 5 Bowl games.  Wildcats are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. Mountain West teams and 6-13 ATS last 19 vs. winning record teams.

The Pick: Arizona -9.5 (Caesar's) @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Arizona 52 / Nevada 37

Game: Toledo +10 at Utah State, O/U 58, Idaho Potato Bowl 12-15 at 4:30pm

Analysis: Toledo comes in at 9-3 losing 2 of the last 3 and scoring 42.2 points/game, good for 8th in the country with a balanced offense.  Utah St. is 10-2 and beat the high-flying L-Tech offense 48-41, and averaging 283 yards/game on the ground with QB Keeton a dual threat and the D has shut down most teams.  Toledo's QB only threw for 14 TDs and was Intercepted 8 times, not a great ratio.  Utah State is an up and coming program and should make quick work of Toledo. 

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 69% of Public Bets Utah State

Bet Trends: Rockets are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs. WAC teams, but 20-8 ATS last 28 after an ATS loss.  Aggies are 10-1-1 ATS last 12 overall and 16-5-1 ATS last 22 Non. Conf. games. 

The Pick: Utah St -10 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Utah St. 38 / Toledo 27

Game: BYU -3 at San Diego St., O/U 48.5, Poinsettia Bowl 12-20 at 8pm

Analysis: BYU is 7-5 and won 3 of its last 4, but lost all 3 games to ranked opponents (Boise St, Oregon St., and Notre Dame), though fairly close games and one of the better defenses.  San Diego St. comes in winning 7 straight including a win at Boise St and in Nevada, ability to win big games on the road.  San Jose St. is a common opponent with BYU losing by 6 and SD St. by 4.  BYU's star WR Hoffman had 90 catches and 11 TDs this year, the key player for BYU but likely to be defended with McFadden for the Aztecs, a play-making cornerback. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 58% of Public Bets SD St. with Some Steam on SD St

Bet Trends: Cougars are 7-0 ATS last 7 vs. Mountain West Conf. and 5-2 ATS last 7 Bowl games.  Aztecs are 6-1 ATS last 7 overall, but 2-5 ATS last 7 Non Conf. games.  BYU is 10-4 ATS last 14 meetings.

The Pick:  San Diego St. +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: San Diego St. 24 / BYU 21

Game: Ball State +7 at Central Florida, O/U 61.5, Beef O' Brady's Bowl, 12-21 at 7:30pm

Analysis:  Ball St's signature win was against Toledo a few weeks ago, and best opponent was a 52-27 loss to Clemson early in the year.  The team is not flashy and ranked middle of the pack in most categories.  UCF ranks 9th in the country allowing just 18 points/game and played fairly well against Ohio St. and Missouri earlier this season. 

Line Movement: Opened -7.5 and 58% of Public Bets Ball St but a Sharp Book Bets UCF -8

Bet Trends: Knights are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. MAC teams.  Cardinals are 19-7 ATS last 26 Non Conf. games and 5-1 ATS last 6 overall. 

The Pick: Central Florida -7 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: UCF 31 / Ball St. 21

Game: East Carolina +6 vs. UL Lafayette, O/U 64.5, New Orleans Bowl 12-22 at 12pm

Analysis: East Carolina relies heavily on the pass with Sophomore QB Carden with a 66.8% completion rate with 21 TDs to 9 INTs.  His favorite target is Justin Hardy, also a Sophomore, and had 83 grabs for 1,046 yards this season.  UL-Lafayette was able to play the Florida Gators tight in a 7 point loss, but let up 65 to a pass-heavy Oklahoma St. team.  UL-Lafayette will also have a bit of a home field advantage in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 83% of Public Bets UL Lafayette with Strong Line Move

Bet Trends: Pirates are 7-1 ATS last 8 on turf, but 6-14 ATS last 20 Non Conf. games.  Ragin Cajuns are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. Non Conf. teams and 14-4 ATS last 18 on turf, but 6-13-2 ATS last 21 vs. Conf. USA. 

The Pick: UL-Lafayette -5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: UL-Lafayette 42 / East Carolina 31

Game: Washington +5 vs. Boise St, O/U 46, Las Vegas Bowl 12-22 at 3:30pm

Analysis: Boise St. had a 10-2 season but still a lot of questions on offense and struggled to beat Nevada the end the year and lost to San Diego St.  The defense has been great, allowing 18.7 points/game good for 12th in the country.  Washington has been hit or miss with big wins vs. Oregon St and Stanford, but struggles on the road.  Price is steady at QB but often lacks the blocking needed, and could struggle against the Broncos front-4.  Boise St only allowed 3 passing TDs all season and has two NFL-caliber cornerbacks.  DJ Harper came on late in the year at RB for Boise St. and should lead them to a win, and cover the spread.

Line Movement: Opened -5 and Steady with 62% of Public Bets on Boise St.

Bet Trends: Huskies are 1-5-2 ATS last 8 vs. Mountain West teams, but 15-6-1 ATS last 22 on field-turf.  Broncos are 4-0 ATS last 4 Bowl games, but 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. winning record teams. 

The Pick: Boise St -5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Boise St. 24 / Washington 17

Game: SMU +12.5 vs. Fresno State, O/U 59.5, Hawaii Bowl 12-24 at 8pm

Analysis: SMU finished 6-6 and looks over-matched in this game with a very mediocre team.  Fresno St. is 9-3 and has won 5 straight with Junior QB Derek Carr leading the way with 36 TDs.  Fresno St. has a ton of weapons with Rouse and Adams and SMU is likely to struggle to keep pace.

Line Movement: Opened -12.5 and 69% of Public Bets on Fresno St., Signs of Sharp $ on SMU

Bet Trends: Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS last 16 overall, but 1-4 ATS last 5 Bowl games.  Mustangs are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. Mountain West teams. 

The Pick: Fresno St -12.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Fresno St 48 / SMU 31

Game: Central Michigan +5.5 vs. Western Kentucky, O/U 58.5, 12-26 at 7:30pm

Analysis: Central Michigan is on a 3 game win streak so comes in with some momentum, but just a 6-6 team.  Western Kentucky has been in the news with the hiring of Bobby Petrino, but lost 3 of its last 4 to end the season and will have an interim coach for the game.  The game is being played at Ford Field, so a bit of a home field advantage for Central Michigan. 

Line Movement: Opened -6 and 66% of Public Bets Western Kentucky, Line Down so Sharp $ on Central Michigan

Bet Trends: Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS last 5 Non. Conf. games and 21-7 ATS last 28 overall.  Chippewas are 8-24 ATS last 32 overall and 1-10 ATS vs. winning record teams, also 1-6 ATS last 7 Non Conf. games. 

The Pick: Central Michigan +5.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Central Michigan 38 / Western Kentucky 31