NFL Week 13 Picks

Game: Seahawks +3.5 at Bears, O/U 37.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: The Seahawks had their usual road issues last week and now 1-5 on the road and have to travel to Chicago in December.  The offense could struggle against the Bears D, but the Seahawks pass rush should give the Bears the usual problems.  Seattle has the players capable of shutting down Marshall and the Bears lack many other weapons.  If Marshawn Lynch can have a 100-yard game the Seahawks can pull off the upset, but the odds are stacked with the usual road struggles.  The 5 road losses have come by a total of 24 points, so Seattle should stay in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 with 63% of Public Bets on Bears and Down to -3.5, Sharp $ on Seahawks

Bet Trends: Seahawks are 5-2 ATS last 7 vs. NFC teams, but 19-39-2 ATS last 60 road games.  Bears are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 games in December.  The Over is 7-0 last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Seahawks +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Seattle 20 / Chicago 16

Game: Vikings +9.5 at Packers, O/U 46.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: The Vikings have struggles losing 3 of 4 although Peterson running well consistently, but a lack of a passing game and the D has been allowing 30 points/game.  Packers had a 5 game win streak snapped last week in an ugly showing and will look to bounce back at home.  It was one of the uglier losses in Rodger's career so I expect him to come out firing this week.  Pass Protection remains the Packers biggest issue, and a lack of a running game to keep the opponents off-key.  The Packers D is also banged up, but the absence of Percy Harvin hurts the Vikings in so many ways. 

Line Movement: Opened -9.5 and Steady with Public 50/50

Bet Trends: Vikings are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 division games and 4-12-3 ATS vs. winning record teams.  Packers are 12-2 ATS last 14 after an ATS loss and 14-6 ATS last 20 at home.  Favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 meetings and Vikings 1-4 ATS last 5 in GB. 

The Pick: Packers -8 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Packers 34 / Vikings 20

Game: 49ers -7 at Rams, O/U 40.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: The 49ers are rolling with Kaepernick at the helm and the D is among the best in the league.  These two teams met 3 weeks ago in the NFL's lone tie, but in this one the Rams expected to be without Amendola.  The Rams always seem to play the 49ers tough and are a better team at home. 

Line Movement: Opened -7 and Steady with 82% of Public Bets on 49ers (Squares)

Bet Trends: 49ers are 21-8-1 ATS last 30 overall and 4-1 ATS last 5 road games.  Rams are 5-0 ATS last 5 divisional games.  49ers are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick:  Rams +7.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Rams 16 / 49ers 20

Game: Cardinals +6 at NY Jets, O/U 37.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: Cardinals have lost 7 straight and Lindley starting at QB again, already proving to be a turnover machine.  Arizona's D plays well against the pass but has struggled against the run and the Jets ground game has been productive lately.  Jets should definitely come out angry in this one after last week's embarrassment.  The Jets have been feast or famine this year, either winning big or losing big, and this matchup favors a win.

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and Steady with 63% of Public Bets on Jets; Line Surged to -6/-7 on Saturday

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 9-24 ATS last 33 vs. teams with losing home records when on the road and 1-6-1 ATS last 8 overall.  Jets are 5-2 ATS last 7 after a loss, but 1-4 ATS following double digit loss at home. 

The Pick: Jets -6 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Jets 27 / Cardinals 13

Game: Panthers -3 at Chiefs, O/U 40.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: Panthers coming off a nice win Monday Night where Cam Newton was at his best and this team may be turning the corner after losing a bunch of close games.  Carolina is balanced on offense and the D has shown substantial improvement.  Chiefs held up well vs. the Broncos last week but continue to struggle to score points.  The D should be able to make some plays in this one, but ultimately just a mismatch in talent.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with 80% of Public Bets on Panthers, Some Sharp $ on Chiefs

Bet Trends: Panthers are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games and 17-6 ATS last 23 December games.  Chiefs are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-4 ATS vs. losing record teams. 

The Pick: Panthers -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Panthers 31 / Chiefs 20

Game: Colts +6 at Lions, O/U 51, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: The 7-4 Colts go on the road and 3 of the 4 losses this year have come on the road.  Indy has been beating some very bad teams and may be a bit over-valued at this record.  Andrew Luck has been playing well but the D does still struggle.  Lions have the top ranked passing attack and coming off a long week after being robbed against one of the NFL's top teams, and have lost 3 in a row, but seem overdue, because they are playing well.  The Lions matchup well in this one and should be able to win comfortably.

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 63% of Public Bets on Colts, but Line Moving in Detroit Favor Shows Sharp $ on Lions

Bet Trends: Colts are 5-1 ATS last 6 overall and 9-3 ATS last 12 on turf.  Lions are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall, but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 vs. winning record teams. 

The Pick: Lions -6 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Lions 37 / Colts 27

Game: Jaguars +6 at Bills, O/U 44, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: Jaguars are coming off their 2nd win of the year and have been playing fairly well lately.  Chad Henne has made a world of difference and the WR's have been making plays, but the Defense is sub-par.  Bills are among the league's worst at stopping the run, but have a strong rushing attack with Spiller/Jackson.  The Bills have lost 4 of 5 and have been a major disappointment, and a team not deserving to be a 6 point favorite against any team.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 61% of Public on Jaguars

Bet Trends: Jaguars are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 after a win.  Bills are 1-4 ATS last 5 in December.  Road Team is 6-2 ATS last 8 meetings and Underdog 5-1 ATS. 

The Pick: Jaguars +6 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Bills 20 / Jaguars 17

Game: Patriots -9 at Dolphins, O/U 50.5, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: Patriots have been putting up insane numbers the last 4 weeks and even without Gronkowski last week scored 49.  The defense is still an issue but has been opportunistic with turnovers.  The Dolphins snapped a 3 game skid last week, but really are just over-matched in this game, and rookie QB's rarely do well against a Bellichek D. 

Line Movement: Opened -7 and 86% of Public Bets on Pats with Some Sharp $ on Miami but Line Moving in Pats Favor

Bet Trends: Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS last 56 road games and 6-2 ATS last 8 vs. AFC teams.  Dolphins are 10-2 ATS last 12 vs. winning record teams and 5-2 ATS vs. AFC East teams.  Patriots are 4-1 ATS last 5 in Miami and Road Team is 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings.

The Pick: Patriots -7.5 @ 2 Units (Offered at BetUs)

Predicted Score: Patriots 38 / Dolphins 20

Game: Texans -6.5 at Titans, O/U 47, 1pm on 12-2

Analysis: The 10-1 Texans are coming off 2 Overtime wins and have looked shaky, but had some extra rest this week.  Houston ranks 2nd in stopping the run and in the Top 10 in both offensive categories.  Titans are an inconsistent team that you never know what you may get from them and rank near the league's worst on D, and the offense not very flashy either.  Houston won 38-14 in Houston earlier this year. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 89% of Public on Texans with True Steam as Well

Bet Trends: Texans are 16-5-2 ATS last 23 vs. AFC teams and 8-3 ATS last 11 road games.  Titans are 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs. AFC teams and 4-10-1 ATS last 15 overall.  Home Team is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 meetings, but Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS as well.

The Pick: Texans - 6.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texans 34 / Titans 23

Game: Bucs +8 at Broncos, O/U 51, 4pm on 12-2

Analysis: Tampa lost by a point to Atlanta last week snapping a 4 game win streak.  Freeman is playing as an elite NFL QB and Martin/Jackson have been welcome additions to the offense that has shined despite some major injury issues on the O-Line.  On defense the team is a mixed bag, last against the pass, and first against the run.  The Broncos struggled last week but beat the Chiefs, first game without McGahee, and now on a 6 game win streak.  Manning should have a big game against the Bucs depleted secondary and the Broncos D is among the best the Bucs will face, so this could turn into a blowout.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 55% of Public on Broncos, but Line Move Showing True Smart $ on Denver as Well

Bet Trends: Bucs are 14-3 ATS last 17 road games vs. teams with winning home records and 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games overall, but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 after allowing 90 yards rushing in prior game.  Broncos are 16-34-2 ATS last 52 home games and 2-5 ATS vs. winning record teams.  Bucs are 2-0-2 ATS last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Broncos -7 @ 2 Units (Betting Trends Favor Bucs Cover)

Predicted Score: Broncos 34 / Bucs 24

Game: Steelers +8 at Ravens, O/U 34, 4pm on 12-2

Analysis: Steelers are on a 2 game slide and will be without Big Ben once again.  Steelers lost 13-10 to Baltimore 2 weeks ago with a punt return the only Ravens TD.  Baltimore, and specifically Flacco, plays much better at home and has won 4 straight with 3 wins on the road and quietly at 9-2.  The Steelers D will do what they can to keep the team in this game, but the Steelers are in disarray with reports that star WR Mike Wallace has been bumped out of a starting role.  These rivalry games are traditionally close, but Baltimore can put up some points in this one and I just do not see where the Steelers will generate offense.

Line Movement: Opened -8 with Big Ben Out Status and 54% of Public Bets Ravens

Bet Trends: Steelers are 10-2 ATS last 12 following a loss, but 2-8 ATS last 10 road games and 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs. AFC teams.  Ravens are 6-2-2 ATS last 10 AFC North, but 2-6 ATS last 8 at home.

The Pick: Ravens -7.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Ravens 23 / Steelers 13

Game: Browns -2 at Raiders, O/U 40, 4:25pm on 12-2

Analysis: The Browns have been playing great football and finally came away with a win last week vs. the Steelers, a huge emotional boost.  The Raiders are playing terrible football and have lost 4 straight allowing an obscene number of points and now suspended 2nd year starting LB McClain for conduct detrimental to the team, a big mess.  Oakland will finally get McFadden back, but that will be of no help to the defense.

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 56% of Public Bets Raiders, but Sharp $ on Browns

Bet Trends: Browns are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 overall, but 1-5-1 ATS last 7 after a win.  Raiders are 18-41-1 ATS vs. losing record teams, 1-5-1 ATS last 7 at home and 0-4 ATS last 4 overall.  Browns are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings and favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7.

The Pick: Browns -1 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Browns 30 / Raiders 23

Game: Bengals -1 at Chargers, O/U 46, 4:25pm on 12-2

Analysis: Bengals have won 3 straight and playing well after a 4 game slide, but the loss of Sanu hurts who was really coming on as a versatile player.  The Bengals have a great pass rush and the Chargers struggle to protect Rivers.  The Chargers are 4-7 and have lost 6 of 7 and look to be "mailing it in" with Norv Turner likely seeing his last season.  Chargers D has been stout against the run but struggles against the pass and has no answer for AJ Green. 

Line Movement: Opened a Pick-Em and 76% of Public on Bengals but Some Sharp $ Action on SD

Bet Trends: Bengals are 10-4 ATS last 14 after an ATS win and 9-4-2 ATS last 15 on the road, but 3-11-2 ATS last 16 vs. AFC teams.  Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6a fter scoring < 15 in prior game and 9-3 ATS last 12 vs. AFC teams.

The Pick: Bengals -1 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 / Chargers 24

Game: Eagles +10.5 at Cowboys, O/U 43.5, 8:20pm on 12-2

Analysis: Eagles have lost 7 straight and includes a 38-23 loss to Dallas at home.  McCoy, Jackson, and Vick all out and the D has looked terrible.  Dallas welcomes back Murray at RB this week and unlikely Philly still has a chance to make the playoffs despite their struggles.  The Cowboys are not exactly the type of team deserving a 10 point line though because they make a ton of mistakes.  This is a difficult one to call because both teams have a lot of issues, so I will take the underdog. 

Line Movement: Opened -9 and 54% of Public Bets Cowboys and Some True $ on Cowboys Pushing Line

Bet Trends: Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 vs. NFC East teams but 1-9-1 ATS last 11 overall and 0-5 ATS vs. losing record teams.  Cowboys are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 vs. NFC teams and 2-8 ATS last 10 vs. NFC East teams.  Eagles are 2-6 ATS last 8 meetings.

The Pick:  Eagles +10.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Cowboys 31 / Eagles 21

Game: Giants -3 at Redskins, O/U 51, 8:30am on 12-3

Analysis: Giants snapped a 2 game slide with a  dominating effort against the Packers and now head on the road for MNF against RG3.  Eli Manning seems to be back and ready for a playoff run and the Skins are terrible on pass defense.  The Giants beat the Skins 27-23 at home on Oct. 21, but Washington still has visions of a NFC East title and has the talent to pull it off.  The Giants D has plenty of holes so the Redskins definitely can pull off the NFC East sweep this week with RG3 a true Primetime Player. 

Line Movement: Opened -2.5 and 64% of Public on Giants with Washington Seeing Some Sharp $ Attention

Bet Trends: Giants are 4-1 ATS last 5 MNF games and 38-16-1 ATS last 55 road games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. losing record teams.  Skins are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. NFC East teams, but 1-4 ATS last 5 MNF games.  Giants are 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings and Underdog is 4-0 ATS.

The Pick:  Redskins +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Redskins 31 / Giants 27