NFL Week 13 Preview and Picks

Game: Ravens +1.5 at Redskins, O/U 47, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Ravens may be the least impressive 9-3 team in NFL history and lost at home last week to a battered Steelers lineup.  The D is missing its emotional leader in Lewis, and now Suggs in injured, along with Ed Reed battling injuries, and the aging D is showing its age as the season hits the latter stages.  That will be a big problem trying to stop the speed of RG3 and a Skins team that has won three straight and is set up to win out into the playoffs.  Washington has a great balance on offense and running a great scheme, and the D is showing improvement. 

Line Movement: Opened a Pick-Em and 53% of Public on Baltimore so the Sharp $ on Redskins

Bet Trends: Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS last 8 road games.  Skins are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS last 7 overall.  The Under is 4-0 last 4 meetings.

The Pick: Skins -1.5 @ 3 Units

Predicted Score: Skins 31 / Ravens 27

Game: Chiefs +7 at Browns, O/U 37.5, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The 2-10 Chiefs are coming off an emotional win vs. Carolina and Quinn showing some flashes at QB, while the running game is ranked 5th in the NFL, and the D stops the pass very well and also rushes the QB.  The Browns are playing great football of late, but tend to be in close games.  Richardson should find some success this week, but Weeden still has struggles and the D has been inconsistent.  This sets up to be an ugly, grind it out, close game.

Line Movement: Opened -5 and 66% of Public Bets Browns Moving Line, No Sharp $ Taking KC

Bet Trends: Chiefs are 1-5 ATS last 6 after an ATS win.  Browns are 8-3-1 ATS last vs. AFC teams and 5-2 ATS last 7 at home.  Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick: Chiefs +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Chiefs 20 / Browns 17

Game: Chargers +9 at Steelers, O/U, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The 4-8 Chargers that generally start slow and finish strong are looking awful with 4 straight losses and 7 of 8, though most of those losses within 7 points.  Reports this week that Norv Turner is finally done, and the whole team in disarray with Rivers not looking like a franchise QB at all.  Steelers are 7-5 and need this win the stay in the playoff hunt, and get back Big Ben, and starting to get back some key pieces.  The last 4 games have been decided by a total of 15 points, and not really a team that can blow teams out.

Line Movement: Opened -7 Late in Week on Big Ben News, 62% of Public Bets Pitt and Moving Line to -9 at Some Books

Bet Trends: Chargers are 9-4 ATS last 13 vs. AFC teams, but 2-6 ATS last 8 overall.  Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS last 12 vs. AFC teams and 5-15-1 ATS last 21 after a win.  Favorite is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings and Chargers 1-5 ATS last 6 at Pittsburgh. 

The Pick: Chargers +9 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Chargers 20 / Steelers 27

Game: Titans +5 at Colts, O/U 48, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The 4-8 Titans have dropped 4 of 5 and been a tough team to figure out all season long.  Locker has really struggled since returning from injury and the D is ranked near the bottom of the league.  Colts are 8-4 and ready for a playoff push and Luck can keep them in any game, although the D is suspect.  Luck should have a big game to all his talented WR's and should allow them to pull away in this one. 

Line Movement: Opened -5.5 and Steady Despite 67% of Public Bets on Colts

Bet Trends: Titans are 21-9 ATS last 30 after scoring < 15 prior game, but 2-5-1 ATS last 8 road games and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 in the division.  Under is 10-1 last 11 meetings, and Underdog is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings.

The Pick:  Colts -5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Colts 31 / Titans 23

Game: Jets -2.5 at Jaguars, O/U 38, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: Jets have been a laughing stock of the league but at 5-7 are actually still in the playoff race.  Sanchez returns as the starter, not good for Jets fans, and will be without Stephen Hill this week, but the ground attack is starting to help them stay in games.  The Jags have played better with Henne at QB, but will be without Cecil Shorts this week who has been a playmaker on a team lacking many weapons.  The Defense has been terrible and the Jets may actually be able to move the ball this week. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with Public Split 50/50

Bet Trends: Jets are 1-4 ATS last 5 overall.  Jaguars are 1-5 ATS last 6 home games.  Jets are 1-6 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick:  Jets -2.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Jets 24 / Jags 20

Game: Bears -3 at Vikings, O/U, 39, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Bears come in at 8-4 but have lost 3 of 4 and the D has started to buckle, and will be missing leader Urlacher this weekend.  The offense has struggled to protect the QB and will be difficult on the road in a dome with Jared Allen lurking.  Vikings at 6-6 need this game to have any hope, but received terrible news this week with Harvin done for the year.  Ponder has struggled this season, but has played much better at home and Peterson has been a beast.  I think the Vikings will keep it close and possibly pull off the upset in this one.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and 64% of Public Bets on Bears but Signs of Sharp $ on Vikings with Line Down to 2.5 at Many Books

Bet Trends: Bears are 2-5 ATS last 7 overall.  Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home but 4-10-1 ATS last 15 in the division and 4-13-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.  Bears are 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings, but Home Team is 7-2 ATS last 9 meetings.

The Pick: Vikings +3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Vikings 20 / Bears 16

Game: Falcons -3.5 at Panthers, O/U 47, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The 11-1 Falcons have been in a ton of close games and needed a heroic comeback earlier this season to beat the Panthers 30-28.  Matt Ryan has been inconsistent lately and turning the ball over, which is unusual, but they have done just enough to win games, but remain vulnerable to upsets.  Panthers come in after losing to the lowly Chiefs, but Cam Newton has come alive late in the season which gives them a chance against any team right now, although likely without LaFell this week.  Carolina can control the clock in this one and keep things close.

Line Movement: Opened -3.5 and Steady with 71% of Public Bets on Atlanta, and No Line Move Shows Smart $ Playing Carolina

Bet Trends: Falcons are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 road games and 13-5-1 ATS vs. losing record teams, but 0-6 ATS last 6 after allowing < 15 points in prior game.  Panthers are 17-7 ATS in December but 0-5 ATS last 5 at home.  Falcons are 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings and the Under is 12-4-1 last 17 meetings in Carolina. 

The Pick: Panthers +3.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Panthers 27 / Falcons 30

Game: Eagles +7.5 at Bucs, O/U 47, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis:  The 3-9 Eagles have dropped 8 straight and will be without Vick, McCoy and Jackson, although Foles has played alright and Bryce Brown has really played well setting records in his first 2 starts.  The Bucs come in with the top ranked rush D and last ranked passing D, while the offense is balanced but they have dropped two straight, although to playoff teams with the Falcons and Broncos, and at 6-6 still in the playoff race.  Tampa should have no problem winning this game with an opportunistic D against a turnover-happy Eagles team.

Line Movement: Opened -8.5 and 61% of Public on Tampa Bay, but Philly Drawing Sharp $ with Line Down to 7.5 at Many Books

Bet Trends: Eagles are 7-18-1 ATS following a loss and 1-7-1 ATS last 9 vs. NFC teams.  Bucs are 5-0-1 ATS last 6 overall, but 9-23-1 ATS last 33 home games. 

The Pick:  Bucs -7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bucs 34 / Eagles 20

Game: Rams +3 at Bills, O/U 42, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Rams are on a two game win streak and coming off a big win last week against the 49ers, but have tended to struggle in games after playing San Francisco.  The offense has shown signs of improvement with the passing game and two-headed running game.  The Bills have won 2 of 3 and been a tough team to predict, very inconsistent and tends to depend on how many INT's Fitzpatrick throws.  The Bills did lose 45-3 to a 49ers team the Rams just beat.  This is the toughest game of the week to call, but as a toss-up, have to go with the Underdog.

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with Public Split 50/50

Bet Trends: Rams are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 9-4 ATS last 13 overall.  Bills are 2-9-1 ATS last 12 after an ATS win.  The Over is 4-0 last 4 meetings.

The Pick:  Rams +3 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: Rams 23 / Bills 20

Game: Cowboys +3 at Bengals, O/U 45.5, 1pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Cowboys are back to even at 6-6 and won 3 of 4 and getting healthy at the right time with Murray's return a huge boost to the offense.  Two of its wins have come against the Eagles, and the other an OT win vs. the Browns, so tough to get too confident in the recent success.  Bengals are 7-5 and have won 4 straight, and in a fight to make the playoffs with a team I think can contend for the Super Bowl next season.  Dalton to Green is one of the league's best tandems and the D-Line is among the best in the league at making plays, and should cause Romo some trouble. 

Line Movement: Opened -3 and Steady with 54% of Public Bets on Cowboys

Bet Trends: Cowboys are 5-16 ATS last 21 after a win and 3-13 ATS last 16 on turf, also 1-5 ATS last 6 overall.  Bengals are 4-0 ATS last 4 overall, but 3-7-1 ATS last 11 at home. 

The Pick:  Bengals -3 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 / Cowboys 23

Game: Dolphins +10 at 49ers, O/U 39, 4:05pm on 12-9

Analysis: Dolphins have lost 4 of 5 and now with the task of heading to the West Coast.  The offense lacks an identity and not using Reggie Bush well.  The D played well against the Pats last week and can keep them in games.  49ers coming off a loss and the QB controversy heats up.  The D in San Francisco is the league's best and will give the Dolphins rookie QB all sorts of issues, but expect this to be a low scoring FG-game.

Line Movement: Opened -10.5 and Steady with 60% Public Bets in 49ers

Bet Trends: Dolphins are 11-2 ATS last 13 vs. winning record teams and 8-3 ATS last 11 road games.  49ers are 13-4-1 ATS last 18 at home but 0-4 ATS last 4 vs. losing record teams. 

The Pick: Dolphins +10.5 @ 1 Unit

Predicted Score: 49ers 23 / Dolphins 13

Game: Saints +4.5 at Giants, O/U 53.5, 4:25pm on 12-9

Analysis: Saints are coming off one of Drew Brees worst games as a pro with 5 interceptions, and the D is still very vulnerable.  Saints are clinging to playoff hopes, but the Giants will look to end those hopes this week in a must-win game for the defending champs, who tend to respond well to losses.  Eli Manning should be set for a solid game and the D-Line can make Brees uncomfortable in the pocket.

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and 58% of Public Bets on Road Saints, Line Holding Steady

Bet Trends: Saints are 14-4 ATS last 18 games on turf and 12-5 ATS vs. the NFC, also 20-9 ATS following a loss.  Giants are 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. losing record teams and 3-13 ATS last 16 home games vs. teams with losing road records.  Favorite and Home Team is 7-1 ATS last 8 meetings.  Saints are 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings in NY.

The Pick:  Giants -4.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Giants 37 / Saints 30

Game: Cardinals +10.5 at Seahawks, O/U 34.5, 4:25pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Cardinals take their 8 game losing streak on the road to Seattle and the 12th man, but will be starting Skeleton at QB this weekend.  Arizona's D has been able to keep them in some games this season, but really just a team with too many holes.  Seattle sits at 7-5 and needs to take care of business this week, and have beaten good teams like the Packers and Pats at home this season.  Wilson is playing great with Tate and Rice coming alive at WR and Lynch remains as consistent of a RB as you can find in the league.  The D is going to have a big game rushing the QB and causing turnovers, although missing star CB Browner for the next 4 games.

Line Movement: Opened -10 and 52% of Public Bets on Seahawks, Steady Line

Bet Trends: Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall.  Seahawks are 6-2 ATS last 8 overall and 39-12-2 ATS last 60 home games, but 1-4 ATS vs. NFC West.  Home Team is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings and Cardinals are 2-5 ATS last 7 meetings.

The Pick: Seahawks -10 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Seattle 27 / Cardinals 13

Game: Lions +7 at Packers, O/U 51.5, 8:20pm on 12-9

Analysis: The Lions at 4-8 would like nothing better than to spoil the Packers season.  Detroit has lost 4 straight with the last 3 coming by a combined 9 points including a 4 point loss to the Packers.  Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been on fire the last few weeks, but secondary weapons like Burleson, Young, and Broyles all going down with injuries will make life more difficult.  Packers at 8-4 need to keep pace with the Bears and Vikings, but the D is really banged up and will struggle this week.  Rodgers should have success, although loses the running game again with Starks out and the O-Line remains shaky.

Line Movement: Opened -6.5 and 69% of Public Bets on Packers, but Line Down to 6.5 at Many Books, Sharp $ Playing Detroit

Bet Trends: Lions are 3-7 ATS last 10 after a loss and 4-11-1 ATS last 16 vs. winning record teams, also 1-7 ATS last 8 in the division.  Packers are 21-8 ATS last 29 in the division and 15-6 ATS last 21 home games, but 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. losing record teams.  Lions are 4-10-1 ATS last 15 meetings in GB.

The Pick: Lions +7 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Packers 30 / Lions 27

Game: Texans +3.5 at Patriots, O/U 52, 8:30pm on 12-10

Analysis: Texans stand at 11-1 and the league's best balanced team, all around great with the passing and running game on offense, and defensively stout.  The team has struggled in Primetime games and the Pats will be looking to send the league a message that they are still the team to beat.  The Texans secondary has been exposed this season in games vs. the Packers, Jags, and Lions, a worry playing in New England.  The Pats have also struggled to stop the pass and on offense Brady struggles when there is any pressure up the middle, which the Texans should be able to generate. 

Line Movement: Opened -4.5 and Down to -3 with 53% of Public on Pats, so Strong Sharp $ on Texans

Bet Trends: Texans are 9-1-1 ATS last 11 vs. winning record teams and 17-5-2 ATS last 24 vs. AFC teams, but 0-4 ATS last 4 games on MNF.  Pats are 4-0 ATS last 4 on MNF, but 2-5 ATS last 7 home games. 

The Pick:  Texans +3.5 @ 2 Units

Predicted Score: Texans 31 / Pats 30